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Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-09-19 Kathinka Frieswijk , Lorenzo Zino , Ming Cao

Clinical trials of a vaccine during an epidemic face particular challenges, such as the pressure to identify an effective vaccine quickly to control the epidemic, and the effect that time-space-varying infection incidence has on the power…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-21 Rob Johnson , Chris Jackson , Anne Presanis , Sofia S. Villar , Daniela De Angelis

We introduce and study a model stemming from game theory for the spread of an epidemic throughout a given population. Each agent is allowed to choose an action whose value dictates to what extent they limit their social interactions, if at…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-20 Sayar Karmakar , Moumanti Podder , Souvik Roy , Soumyarup Sadhukhan

When resources are scarce, an allocation policy is needed to decide who receives a resource. This problem occurs, for instance, when allocating scarce medical resources and is often solved using modern ML methods. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Niclas Boehmer , Yash Nair , Sanket Shah , Lucas Janson , Aparna Taneja , Milind Tambe

We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-08 Martina Favero , Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba , Tom Britton

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Niall Creech , Natalia Criado Pacheco , Simon Miles

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…

In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through comprehensive data analysis and modeling, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-06 Piergiorgio Castioni , Sergio Gòmez , Clara Granell , Alex Arenas

We introduce an immunization method where the percentage of required vaccinations for immunity are close to the optimal value of a targeted immunization scheme of highest degree nodes. Our strategy retains the advantage of being purely…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Lazaros K. Gallos , Fredrik Liljeros , Panos Argyrakis , Armin Bunde , Shlomo Havlin

We study how a fraction of a population should be vaccinated to most efficiently top epidemics. We argue that only local information (about the neighborhood of specific vertices) is usable in practice, and hence we consider only local…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Petter Holme

The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-12-04 Stefania Ottaviano , Francesco De Pellegrini , Stefano Bonaccorsi , Piet Van Mieghem

As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-08-20 José L. Herrera , Lauren Ancel Meyers

Allocation of scarce resources is a recurring challenge for the public sector: something that emerges in areas as diverse as healthcare, disaster recovery, and social welfare. The complexity of these policy domains and the need for meeting…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Saba Esnaashari , Jonathan Bright , John Francis , Youmna Hashem , Vincent Straub , Deborah Morgan

Many scenarios where agents with restrictions compete for resources can be cast as maximum matching problems on bipartite graphs. Our focus is on resource allocation problems where agents may have restrictions that make them incompatible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Yohai Trabelsi , Abhijin Adiga , Sarit Kraus , S. S. Ravi

We study the problem of finding the optimal dosage in early stage clinical trials through the multi-armed bandit lens. We advocate the use of the Thompson Sampling principle, a flexible algorithm that can accommodate different types of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-09 Maryam Aziz , Emilie Kaufmann , Marie-Karelle Riviere

The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Shoshana Elgart

The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States has sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-02-10 Shweta Bansal , Babak Pourbohloul , Lauren Ancel Meyers

We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Vittoria Colizza , Alain Barrat , Marc Barthelemy , Alain-Jacques Valleron , Alessandro Vespignani

Effective vaccine prioritization is critical for epidemic control, yet real outbreaks exhibit memory effects that inflate state space and make long-term prediction and optimization challenging. As a result, many strategies are tuned to…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-11-11 Mi Feng , Liang Tian , Changsong Zhou

Effective pandemic control requires timely and coordinated policymaking across administrative regions that are intrinsically interdependent. However, human-driven responses are often fragmented and reactive, with policies formulated in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Ziyi Shi , Xusen Guo , Hongliang Lu , Mingxing Peng , Haotian Wang , Zheng Zhu , Zhenning Li , Yuxuan Liang , Xinhu Zheng , Hai Yang