Related papers: A Bayesian Hidden Semi-Markov Model with Covariate…
We introduce a restricted latent class exploratory model for longitudinal data with ordinal attributes and respondent-specific covariates. Responses follow a time inhomogeneous hidden Markov model where the probability of a respondent's…
We propose a copula-based extension of the hidden Markov model (HMM) which applies when the observations recorded at each time in the sample are multivariate. The joint model produced by the copula extension allows decoding of the hidden…
We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…
Understanding the dynamics of a system is important in many scientific and engineering domains. This problem can be approached by learning state transition rules from observations using machine learning techniques. Such observed time-series…
Social learning strategies enable agents to infer the underlying true state of nature in a distributed manner by receiving private environmental signals and exchanging beliefs with their neighbors. Previous studies have extensively focused…
In this paper, we propose circular Hidden Quantum Markov Models (c-HQMMs), which can be applied for modeling temporal data in quantum datasets (with classical datasets as a special case). We show that c-HQMMs are equivalent to a constrained…
State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…
The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…
We propose the Gaussian-Linear Hidden Markov model (GLHMM), a generalisation of different types of HMMs commonly used in neuroscience. In short, the GLHMM is a general framework where linear regression is used to flexibly parameterise the…
For hydrological applications, such as urban flood modelling, it is often important to be able to simulate sub-daily rainfall time series from stochastic models. However, modelling rainfall at this resolution poses several challenges,…
Understanding species-habitat associations is fundamental to ecological sciences and for species conservation. Consequently, various statistical approaches have been designed to infer species-habitat associations. Due to their conceptual…
We introduce the BMRMM package implementing Bayesian inference for a class of Markov renewal mixed models which can characterize the stochastic dynamics of a collection of sequences, each comprising alternative instances of categorical…
We study a phase transition in parameter learning of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We do this by generating sequences of observed symbols from given discrete HMMs with uniformly distributed transition probabilities and a noise level encoded…
Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer…
1. Electronic telemetry is frequently used to document animal movement through time. Methods that can identify underlying behaviors driving specific movement patterns can help us understand how and why animals use available space, thereby…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a ubiquitous tool to model time series data, and have been widely used in two main tasks of Automatic Music Transcription (AMT): note segmentation, i.e. identifying the played notes after a multi-pitch…
We consider data-driven Bayesian state estimation from compressed measurements (BSCM) of a model-free process. The dimension of the temporal measurement vector is lower than that of the temporal state vector to be estimated, leading to an…
The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an…
We consider penalized estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) with multivariate Normal observations. In the moderate-to-large dimensional setting, estimation for HMMs remains challenging in practice, due to several concerns arising from…
Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…