Related papers: Modeling Regime Shifts in Multiple Time Series
Time series forecasting models often exhibit inconsistent performance across datasets with varying statistical and structural properties. Despite the wide range of available forecasting techniques, it remains unclear whether model selection…
Is it possible to understand the intricacies of a dynamical system not solely from its input/output pattern, but also by observing the behavior of other systems within the same class? This central question drives the study presented in this…
Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now…
Due to the conventional distinction between ecological (rapid) and evolutionary (slow)timescales, ecological and population models to date have typically ignored the effects of evolution. Yet the potential for rapid evolutionary change has…
Interactions between transportation networks and territories are the subject of open scientific debates, in particular regarding the possible existence of structuring effects of networks, and linked to crucial practical issues of…
One of the basic frameworks in science views behavioral products as a process within a dynamic system. The mechanism might be seen as a representation of many instances of centralized control in real time. Many real systems, however,…
The complexity of interactions between networks and territories has been widely acknowledged empirically, in particular through the existence of circular causal relations in their co-development, that can be understood as a co-evolution.…
In a range of scientific coauthorship networks, transitions emerge in degree distributions, correlations between degrees and local clustering coefficients, etc. The existence of those transitions could be regarded as a result of the…
Modeling environmental ecosystems is essential for effective resource management, sustainable development, and understanding complex ecological processes. However, traditional methods frequently struggle with the inherent complexity,…
This research investigates the impact of dynamic, time-varying interactions on cooperative behaviour in social dilemmas. Traditional research has focused on deterministic rules governing pairwise interactions, yet the impact of interaction…
Understanding systems level behaviour of many interacting agents is challenging in various ways, here we'll focus on the how the interaction between components can lead to hierarchical structures with different types of dynamics, or…
Ecosystem approach to fisheries requires a thorough understanding of fishing impacts on ecosystem status and processes as well as predictive tools such as ecosystem models to provide useful information for management. The credibility of…
Natural and social multivariate systems are commonly studied through sets of simultaneous and time-spaced measurements of the observables that drive their dynamics, i.e., through sets of time series. Typically, this is done via hypothesis…
Evolutionary and ecosystem dynamics are often treated as different processes --operating at separate timescales-- even if evidence reveals that rapid evolutionary changes can feed back into ecological interactions. A recent long-term field…
We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…
Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…
Cyclic predator-prey systems have been shown to give rise to rich, and novel, space-time patterns, as for example coarsening domains with non-trivial in-domain dynamics. In this work we study numerically the responses of a cyclic…
One of the main challenges in identifying structural changes in stochastic processes is to carry out analysis for time series with dependency structure in a computationally tractable way. Another challenge is that the number of true change…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
Successfully anticipating sudden major changes in complex systems is a practical concern. Such complex systems often form a heterogeneous network, which may show multistage transitions in which some nodes experience a regime shift earlier…