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In this study the common least-squares minimization approach is compared to the Bayesian updating procedure. In the content of material parameter identification the posterior parameter density function is obtained from its prior and the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-08-12 Thomas Most

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Edwin Fong , Andrew Yiu

Efficiently sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal posteriors is a central challenge in Bayesian inference for astrophysics, especially gravitational-wave astronomy. Popular families of methods like Markov-chain Monte Carlo, nested…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-26 Miaoxin Liu , Alvin J. K. Chua

Bayesian methods of sampling from a posterior distribution are becoming increasingly popular due to their ability to precisely display the uncertainty of a model fit. Classical methods based on iterative random sampling and posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-04 Jacopo Guidolin , Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Ondřej Kuželka

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

We propose an importance sampling (IS)-based transport map Hamiltonian Monte Carlo procedure for performing full Bayesian analysis in general nonlinear high-dimensional hierarchical models. Using IS techniques to construct a transport map,…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-11 Kjartan Kloster Osmundsen , Tore Selland Kleppe , Roman Liesenfeld

Sparse representations have proven their efficiency in solving a wide class of inverse problems encountered in signal and image processing. Conversely, enforcing the information to be spread uniformly over representation coefficients…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-29 Clément Elvira , Pierre Chainais , Nicolas Dobigeon

We propose a novel Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample uniformly from the space of correlation matrices. Existing methods in the literature are based on elaborated representations of a correlation matrix, or on complex parametrizations…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-18 Irene Córdoba , Gherardo Varando , Concha Bielza , Pedro Larrañaga

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Ali Mousavi , Reza Monsefi , Víctor Elvira

In Bayesian statistics, many problems can be expressed as the evaluation of the expectation of a quantity of interest with respect to the posterior distribution. Standard Monte Carlo method is often not applicable because the encountered…

Computation · Statistics 2011-10-11 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

Bayesian methods have been widely used in the last two decades to infer statistical properties of spatially variable coefficients in partial differential equations from measurements of the solutions of these equations. Yet, in many cases…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-01 David Aristoff , Wolfgang Bangerth

Metropolis-Hastings estimates intractable expectations - can differentiating the algorithm estimate their gradients? The challenge is that Metropolis-Hastings trajectories are not conventionally differentiable due to the discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Gaurav Arya , Moritz Schauer , Ruben Seyer

Approximate Bayesian Computation has been successfully used in population genetics to bypass the calculation of the likelihood. These methods provide accurate estimates of the posterior distribution by comparing the observed dataset to a…

Motivated by the problem of exploring discrete but very complex state spaces in Bayesian models, we propose a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo search algorithm: the taxicab sampler. We describe the construction of this sampler and discuss how…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Vincent Geels , Matthew Pratola , Radu Herbei

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , G. Camps-Valls

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-28 Khoa T. Tran

We propose a new computationally efficient sampling scheme for Bayesian inference involving high dimensional probability distributions. Our method maps the original parameter space into a low-dimensional latent space, explores the latent…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-15 Babak Shahbaba , Luis Martinez Lomeli , Tian Chen , Shiwei Lan

Bayesian inference remains one of the most important tool-kits for any scientist, but increasingly expensive likelihood functions are required for ever-more complex experiments, raising the cost of generating a Monte Carlo sample of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Jesús Torrado , Nils Schöneberg , Jonas El Gammal

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez
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