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The estimation of the Extreme Value Index (EVI) is fundamental in extreme value analysis but suffers from high variance due to reliance on only a few extreme observations. We propose a control variates based transfer learning approach in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Louison Bocquet-Nouaille , Jérôme Morio , Benjamin Bobbia

We present simple and practical strategies to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators. Our focus is on variational Monte Carlo calculations of atomic forces and pressure in electronic systems, although we show that the underlying…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2026-03-17 David Linteau , Saverio Moroni , Giuseppe Carleo , Markus Holzmann

A new methodology is presented for the construction of control variates to reduce the variance of additive functionals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. Our control variates are definedthrough the minimization of the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-09 Nicolas Brosse , Alain Durmus , Sean Meyn , Eric Moulines , Anand Radhakrishnan

Expectation values of physical quantities may accurately be obtained by the evaluation of integrals within Many-Body Quantum mechanics, and these multi-dimensional integrals may be estimated using Monte Carlo methods. In a previous…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-10-01 J. R. Trail

We present an unbiased numerical integration algorithm that handles both low-frequency regions and high frequency details of multidimensional integrals. It combines quadrature and Monte Carlo integration, by using a quadrature-base…

Graphics · Computer Science 2020-08-18 Miguel Crespo , Felix Bernal , Adrian Jarabo , Adolfo Muñoz

Variance reduction techniques have been shown by others in the past to be a useful tool to reduce variance in Simulation studies. However, their application and success in the past has been mainly domain specific, with relatively little…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2013-06-03 Adrian Adewunmi , Uwe Aickelin

We construct numerical integrators for Hamiltonian problems that may advantageously replace the standard Verlet time-stepper within Hybrid Monte Carlo and related simulations. Past attempts have often aimed at boosting the order of accuracy…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-04-10 Sergio Blanes , Fernando Casas , J. M. Sanz-Serna

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Khai Nguyen , Nhat Ho

This paper proposes a family of weighted batch means variance estimators, which are computationally efficient and can be conveniently applied in practice. The focus is on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and estimation of the asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-23 Ying Liu , James M. Flegal

In this paper we examine a control variate estimator for a quantity that can be expressed as the expectation of a functional of a random process, that is itself the solution of a differential equation driven by fast mean-reverting ergodic…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-10 Josselin Garnier , Laurent Mertz

Building upon recent developments of force-based estimators with a reduced variance for the computation of densities, radial distribution functions or local transport properties from molecular simulations, we show that the variance can be…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2021-05-18 Samuel W. Coles , Etienne Mangaud , Daan Frenkel , Benjamin Rotenberg

The efficient evaluation of high-dimensional integrals is of importance in both theoretical and practical fields of science, such as data science, statistical physics, and machine learning. However, exact computation methods suffer from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Radislav Vaisman , Robert Salomone , Dirk P. Kroese

In this paper we present a novel approach towards variance reduction for discretised diffusion processes. The proposed approach involves specially constructed control variates and allows for a significant reduction in the variance for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-19 Denis Belomestny , Stefan Häfner , Tigran Nagapetyan , Mikhail Urusov

The recent growth in multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification has given rise to a large set of variance reduction techniques that leverage information from model ensembles to provide variance reduction for estimates of the statistics of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-11 Trung Pham , Alex A. Gorodetsky

Decision making under uncertainty is critical to real-world, autonomous systems. Model Predictive Control (MPC) methods have demonstrated favorable performance in practice, but remain limited when dealing with complex probability…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Alexander Lambert , Adam Fishman , Dieter Fox , Byron Boots , Fabio Ramos

Standard Monte Carlo computation is widely known to exhibit a canonical square-root convergence speed in terms of sample size. Two recent techniques, one based on control variate and one on importance sampling, both derived from an…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-13 Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

We present a hybrid sampling-surrogate approach for reducing the computational expense of uncertainty quantification in nonlinear dynamical systems. Our motivation is to enable rapid uncertainty quantification in complex mechanical systems…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-27 Hang Yang , Yuji Fujii , K. W. Wang , Alex A. Gorodetsky

The radiative transfer equation models various physical processes ranging from plasma simulations to radiation therapy. In practice, these phenomena are often subject to uncertainties. Modeling and propagating these uncertainties requires…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-02 Chinmay Patwardhan , Pia Stammer , Emil Løvbak , Jonas Kusch , Sebastian Krumscheid

When dealing with difficult inverse problems such as inverse rendering, using Monte Carlo estimated gradients to optimise parameters can slow down convergence due to variance. Averaging many gradient samples in each iteration reduces this…

Graphics · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Martin Balint , Karol Myszkowski , Hans-Peter Seidel , Gurprit Singh

We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Masahiro Fujisawa , Issei Sato