Related papers: Test Martingales for bounded random variables
Let $X$ be a progressively measurable, almost surely right-continuous stochastic process such that $X_\tau \in L^1$ and $E[X_\tau] = E[X_0]$ for each finite stopping time $\tau$. In 2006, Cherny showed that $X$ is then a uniformly…
Randomization testing is a fundamental method in statistics, enabling inferential tasks such as testing for (conditional) independence of random variables, constructing confidence intervals in semiparametric location models, and…
In the last fifteen the subset sampling method has often been used in reliability problems as a tool for calculating small probabilities. This method is extrapolating from an initial Monte Carlo estimate for the probability content of a…
We propose two nonparametric tests for investigating the pathwise properties of a signal modeled as the sum of a L\'{e}vy process and a Brownian semimartingale. Using a nonparametric threshold estimator for the continuous component of the…
In quantitative finance, we often fit a parametric semimartingale model to asset prices. To ensure our model is correct, we must then perform goodness-of-fit tests. In this paper, we give a new goodness-of-fit test for volatility-like…
This paper provides tests for detecting sample selection in nonparametric conditional quantile functions. The first test is an omitted predictor test with the propensity score as the omitted variable. As with any omnibus test, in the case…
Testing for pairwise independence for the case where the number of variables may be of the same size or even larger than the sample size has received increasing attention in the recent years. We contribute to this branch of the literature…
We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…
In a previous work, we associated with any submartingale $X$ of class $(\Sigma)$, defined on a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P}, (\mathcal{F}_t)_{t \geq 0})$ satisfying some technical conditions, a…
The usual way of testing probability forecasts in game-theoretic probability is via construction of test martingales. The standard assumption is that all forecasts are output by the same forecaster. In this paper I will discuss possible…
Current tests for nonlinearity compare a time series to the null hypothesis of a Gaussian linear stochastic process. For this restricted null assumption, random surrogates can be constructed which are constrained by the linear properties of…
Adaptive specification search generates statistically significant backtests even under martingale-difference nulls. We introduce a falsification audit testing complete predictive workflows against synthetic reference classes, including…
The Fisher randomization test (FRT) is appropriate for any test statistic, under a sharp null hypothesis that can recover all missing potential outcomes. However, it is often sought after to test a weak null hypothesis that the treatment…
We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a c\`adl\`ag nonlinear…
We deal with various alternative decompositions of F-martingales with respect to the filtration G which represents the enlargement of a filtration F by a progressive flow of observations of a random time that either belongs to the class of…
In an empirical Bayesian setting, we provide a new multiple testing method, useful when an additional covariate is available, that influences the probability of each null hypothesis being true. We measure the posterior significance of each…
We propose a high-dimensional white noise test that captures serial correlations within and across component series without specifying an alternative model. The test statistic is a U-statistic based on sample autocovariances. Under the…
On a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\mathbb{Q})$ we consider two filtrations $\mathbb{F}\subset \mathbb{G}$ and a $\mathbb{G}$ stopping time $\theta$ such that the $\mathbb{G}$ predictable processes coincide with $\mathbb{F}$…
In the theory of algorithmic randomness, one of the central notions is that of computable randomness. An infinite binary sequence X is computably random if no recursive martingale (strategy) can win an infinite amount of money by betting on…
We develop randomization-based tests for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of network interference. Leveraging the exposure mapping framework, we study a broad class of null hypotheses that represent various forms of constant…