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Geopolitics is shaped by trade and borders. We develop a general-equilibrium model in which both are endogenously determined in a linear world. Their interaction rationalizes geopolitical outcomes that cannot be obtained when either trade…

General Economics · Economics 2026-03-13 Ben G. Li , Penglong Zhang

Large volumes of spatiotemporal data, characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, may experience structural changes over time. Unlike traditional change-point problems, each sequence in this context consists of function-valued…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Fengyi Song , Decai Liang , Changliang Zou

Spatial confounding is a persistent challenge in spatial statistics, influencing the validity of statistical inference in models that analyze spatially-structured data. The concept has been interpreted in various ways but is broadly defined…

We extend the regression discontinuity (RD) design to settings where each unit's treatment status is an average or aggregate across multiple discontinuity events. Such situations arise in many studies where the outcome is measured at a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-03 Kirill Borusyak , Matan Kolerman-Shemer

We highlight a striking difference in behavior between two widely used variants of coordinate ascent variational inference: the sequential and parallel algorithms. While such differences were known in the numerical analysis literature in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Debdeep Pati

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

A significant body of research in the data sciences considers unfair discrimination against social categories such as race or gender that could occur or be amplified as a result of algorithmic decisions. Simultaneously, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Lucius E. J. Bynum , Joshua R. Loftus , Julia Stoyanovich

We consider the problem of inference in Difference-in-Differences (DID) when there are few treated units and errors are spatially correlated. We first show that, when there is a single treated unit, some existing inference methods designed…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-26 Luis Alvarez , Bruno Ferman

The decomposition of the linear-order metric perturbation is discussed in the context of the higher-order gauge-invariant perturbation theory. We show that the linear order metric perturbation is decomposed into gauge-invariant and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2011-01-10 Kouji Nakamura

This paper extends endogenous economic growth models to incorporate knowledge externality. We explores whether spatial knowledge spillovers among regions exist, whether spatial knowledge spillovers promote regional innovative activities,…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-07 Jinwen Qiu , Wenjian Liu , Ning Ning

The paper deals with the problem of identifying the internal dependencies and similarities among a large number of random processes. Linear models are considered to describe the relations among the time series and the energy associated to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 G. Innocenti , D. Materassi

Geographic proximity is acknowledged to be a key factor in research collaborations. Specifically, it can work as a possible substitute for institutional proximity. The present study investigates the relevance of the "proximity" effect for…

General Economics · Economics 2022-02-22 Giovanni Abramo , Francesca Apponi , Ciriaco Andrea D'Angelo

How do decisions change with the economic environment and with time? This paper studies general nonstationary stopping problems and provides the methodological tools to answer these questions. First, we identify conditions that ensure a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-01 Théo Durandard , Matteo Camboni

In this work, the Darmois-Israel junction formalism is extended to the case of discontinuous metrics within the framework of Colombeau algebras of generalized functions. This formulation provides a mathematically consistent treatment of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-01-14 J. A. Silva , F. C. Carvalho , Antonio R. G. Garcia

The increasing popularity of regression discontinuity methods for causal inference in observational studies has led to a proliferation of different estimating strategies, most of which involve first fitting non-parametric regression models…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-11 Guido Imbens , Stefan Wager

Recent advances in cutting-plane strategies applied to robust optimization problems show that they are competitive with respect to problem reformulations and interior-point algorithms. However, although its application with polyhedral…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-03 Roberto Mínguez , Víctor Casero-Alonso

Understanding how humans use and consume space by comparing stratified groups, either through observation or controlled study, is key to designing better spaces, cities, and policies. GPS data traces provide detailed movement patterns of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-02-20 Rui Zhang , Kevin G. Stanley , Daniel Fuller , Scott Bell

A rich literature has explored the modeling of homophily and other forms of nonuniform mixing associated with individual-level covariates within the exponential family random graph (ERGM) framework. Such differential mixing does not fully…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-08-06 Francis Lee , Carter T. Butts

Counterfactuals are often described as 'retrospective,' focusing on hypothetical alternatives to a realized past. This description relates to an often implicit assumption about the structure and stability of exogenous variables in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Lucius E. J. Bynum , Joshua R. Loftus , Julia Stoyanovich

Driven by an increasing prevalence of trackers, ever more IoT sensors, and the declining cost of computing power, geospatial information has come to play a pivotal role in contemporary predictive models. While enhancing prognostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Agathe Fernandes Machado , François Hu , Philipp Ratz , Ewen Gallic , Arthur Charpentier