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In this article, we fill a gap in the literature regarding quantitative functional central limit theorems (qfCLT) for Hawkes processes by providing an upper bound for the convergence of a nearly unstable Hawkes process toward a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-16 Laure Coutin , Benjamin Massat , Anthony Réveillac

In this note we re-visit the fundamental question of the strong law of large numbers and central limit theorem for processes in continuous time with conditional stationary and independent increments. For convenience we refer to them as…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-05 Andreas E. Kyprianou , Victor Rivero

We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Ingemar Kaj , Mine Caglar

This continues work started in part I on a general branching-within-branching model for host-parasite co-evolution. Here we focus on asymptotic results for relevant processes in the case when parasites survive. In particular, limit theorems…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-18 Gerold Alsmeyer , Sören Gröttrup

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

The persistent homology of a stationary point process on ${\bf R}^N$ is studied in this paper. As a generalization of continuum percolation theory, we study higher dimensional topological features of the point process such as loops,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-28 Trinh Khanh Duy , Yasuaki Hiraoka , Tomoyuki Shirai

We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations of a large variety of systems with bursty events, for which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-08-26 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

We study functional limit theorems for linear type processes with short memory under the assumption that the innovations are dependent identically distributed random variables with infinite variance and in the domain of attraction of stable…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-20 Marta Tyran-Kaminska

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

We introduce and study the natural counterpart of the Dunkl Markov processes in a negatively curved setting. We give a semimartingale decomposition of the radial part, and some properties of the jumps. We prove also a law of large numbers,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Bruno Schapira

This paper establishes limit theorems for a class of stochastic hybrid systems (continuous deterministic dynamic coupled with jump Markov processes) in the fluid limit (small jumps at high frequency), thus extending known results for jump…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-15 K. Pakdaman , M. Thieullen , G. Wainrib

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Alexander Soen , Shidi Li , Pio Calderon , Leanne Dong , Aditya Krishna Menon , Lexing Xie

We are interested in a fragmentation process. We observe fragments frozen when their sizes are less than $\epsilon$ ($\epsilon$ > 0). Is is known ([BM05]) that the empirical measure of these fragments converges in law, under some…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-30 Sylvain Rubenthaler

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

We consider a family of general branching processes with reproduction parameters depending on the age of the individual as well as the population age structure and a parameter $K$, which may represent the carrying capacity. These processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-06 Jie Yen Fan , Kais Hamza , Peter Jagers , Fima C. Klebaner

It has been recently discovered that some random processes may satisfy limit theorems even though they exhibit intermittency, namely an unusual growth of moments. In this paper we provide a deeper understanding of these intricate limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-23 Danijel Grahovac , Nikolai N. Leonenko , Murad S. Taqqu

In the present work we derive a Central Limit Theorem for sequences of Hilbert-valued Piecewise Deterministic Markov process models and their global fluctuations around their deterministic limit identified by the Law of Large Numbers. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-23 Martin G Riedler , Michele Thieullen

This study aims to develop the limit theorems on the sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations for certain stationary infinitely divisible processes. We consider the case where the infinitely divisible process has heavy tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-17 Takashi Owada

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

In this article we establish two fundamental results for the sublevel set persistent homology for stationary processes indexed by the positive integers. The first is a strong law of large numbers for the persistence diagram (treated as a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Andrew M. Thomas