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Explanations play a variety of roles in various recommender systems, from a legally mandated afterthought, through an integral element of user experience, to a key to persuasiveness. A natural and useful form of an explanation is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Jakub Černý , Jiří Němeček , Ivan Dovica , Jakub Mareček

Every day, we judge the probability of propositions. When we communicate graded confidence (e.g. "I am 90% sure"), we enable others to gauge how much weight to attach to our judgment. Ideally, people should share their judgments to reach…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-10 Patrick Stinson , Jasper van den Bosch , Trenton Jerde , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

Scholars have increasingly investigated "crowdsourcing" as an alternative to expert-based judgment or purely data-driven approaches to predicting the future. Under certain conditions, scholars have found that crowdsourcing can outperform…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-12-12 Daniel Martin Katz , Michael James Bommarito , Josh Blackman

Future Event Prediction (FEP) is an essential activity whose demand and application range across multiple domains. While traditional methods like simulations, predictive and time-series forecasting have demonstrated promising outcomes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Anisha Saha , Adam Jatowt

Large language models (LLMs) are proficient at generating fluent text with minimal task-specific supervision. Yet, their ability to provide well-grounded rationalizations for knowledge-intensive tasks remains under-explored. Such tasks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Aditi Mishra , Sajjadur Rahman , Hannah Kim , Kushan Mitra , Estevam Hruschka

Truthfulness judgments are a fundamental step in the process of fighting misinformation, as they are crucial to train and evaluate classifiers that automatically distinguish true and false statements. Usually such judgments are made by…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Kevin Roitero , Michael Soprano , Shaoyang Fan , Damiano Spina , Stefano Mizzaro , Gianluca Demartini

In a crowd forecasting system, aggregation is an algorithm that returns aggregated probabilities for each question based on the probabilities provided per question by each individual in the crowd. Various aggregation methods have been…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-18 Yuzhong Huang , Andres Abeliuk , Fred Morstatter , Pavel Atanasov , Aram Galstyan

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-25 Ville A. Satopää , Shane T. Jensen , Robin Pemantle , Lyle H. Ungar

Collective decision making is often a customary action taken in government crowdsourcing. Through ensemble of opinions (popularly known as judgment analysis), governments can satisfy majority of the people who provided opinions. This has…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Akanksha Das , Jyoti Patel , Malay Bhattacharyya

Inspired by e-participation systems, in this paper we propose a new model to represent human debates and methods to obtain collective conclusions from them. This model overcomes drawbacks of existing approaches by allowing users to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-15 Jordi Ganzer , Natalia Criado , Maite Lopez-Sanchez , Simon Parsons , Juan A. Rodriguez-Aguilar

Several techniques have been used to generate weather forecast texts. In this paper, case based reasoning (CBR) is proposed for weather forecast text generation because similar weather conditions occur over time and should have similar…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-09-04 Ibrahim Adeyanju

On the Web, there is always a need to aggregate opinions from the crowd (as in posts, social networks, forums, etc.). Different mechanisms have been implemented to capture these opinions such as "Like" in Facebook, "Favorite" in Twitter,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Edmond Awad , Jean-François Bonnefon , Martin Caminada , Thomas Malone , Iyad Rahwan

Explainable question answering systems predict an answer together with an explanation showing why the answer has been selected. The goal is to enable users to assess the correctness of the system and understand its reasoning process.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-10-14 Hendrik Schuff , Heike Adel , Ngoc Thang Vu

Fact-checking on major platforms, such as X, Meta, and TikTok, is shifting from expert-driven verification to a community-based setup, where users contribute explanatory notes to clarify why a post might be misleading. An important…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Rui Xing , Preslav Nakov , Timothy Baldwin , Jey Han Lau

The process of gathering ground truth data through human annotation is a major bottleneck in the use of information extraction methods for populating the Semantic Web. Crowdsourcing-based approaches are gaining popularity in the attempt to…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Anca Dumitrache , Oana Inel , Benjamin Timmermans , Carlos Ortiz , Robert-Jan Sips , Lora Aroyo , Chris Welty

Despite a growing literature on explaining neural networks, no consensus has been reached on how to explain a neural network decision or how to evaluate an explanation. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. First, we investigate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-23 Laura Rieger , Lars Kai Hansen

In this paper, we propose standard statistical tools as a solution to commonly highlighted problems in the explainability literature. Indeed, leveraging statistical estimators allows for a proper definition of explanations, enabling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Valentina Ghidini

We consider unsupervised crowdsourcing performance based on the model wherein the responses of end-users are essentially rated according to how their responses correlate with the majority of other responses to the same subtasks/questions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-10-11 G. Kesidis , A. Kurve

Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters' irrationality and/or asymmetric loss. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation: when forecasts inform policy decisions, and the resulting…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-24 Robert P. Lieli , Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu

Free-form rationales aim to aid model interpretability by supplying the background knowledge that can help understand model decisions. Crowdsourced rationales are provided for commonsense QA instances in popular datasets such as CoS-E and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Jiao Sun , Swabha Swayamdipta , Jonathan May , Xuezhe Ma