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Particle smoothing methods are used for inference of stochastic processes based on noisy observations. Typically, the estimation of the marginal posterior distribution given all observations is cumbersome and computational intensive. In…
Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with a survival outcome are often challenged by immortal time (IMT), a period of follow-up during which the survival outcome cannot occur because of the observed later treatment initiation. It has…
The theta process is a stochastic process of number theoretical origin arising as a scaling limit of quadratic Weyl sums. It can be described in terms of the geodesic flow and an automorphic function on a homogeneous space. This process has…
Continuous time stochastic processes are useful models especially for financial and insurance purposes. The numerical simulation of such models is dependant of the time discrete discretization, of the parametric estimation and of the choice…
In the present paper, a stochastic Taylor expansion of some functional applied to the solution process of an It\^o or Stratonovich stochastic differential equation with a multi-dimensional driving Wiener process is given. Therefore, the…
The presence of protein aggregates in cells is a known feature of many human age-related diseases, such as Huntington's disease. Simulations using fixed parameter values in a model of the dynamic evolution of expanded polyglutamine (PolyQ)…
This primer explains how continuous-time stochastic processes (precisely, Brownian motion and other Ito diffusions) can be defined and studied on manifolds. No knowledge is assumed of either differential geometry or continuous-time…
With the latest advances in Deep Learning-based generative models, it has not taken long to take advantage of their remarkable performance in the area of time series. Deep neural networks used to work with time series heavily depend on the…
We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…
Nonlinear time series analysis is an active field of research that studies the structure of complex signals in order to derive information of the process that generated those series, for understanding, modeling and forecasting purposes. In…
We consider a general d-dimensional Levy-type process with killing. Combining the classical Dyson series approach with a novel polynomial expansion of the generator A(t) of the Levy-type process, we derive a family of asymptotic…
Some important applicative problems require the evaluation of functions $\Psi$ of large and sparse and/or \emph{localized} matrices $A$. Popular and interesting techniques for computing $\Psi(A)$ and $\Psi(A)\mathbf{v}$, where $\mathbf{v}$…
Stochastic partition models tailor a product space into a number of rectangular regions such that the data within each region exhibit certain types of homogeneity. Due to constraints of partition strategy, existing models may cause…
Spatial birth and death processes are obtained as solutions of a system of stochastic equations. The processes are required to be locally finite, but may involve an infinite population over the full (noncompact) type space. Conditions are…
This article introduces a nonparametric approach to multivariate time-varying power spectrum analysis. The procedure adaptively partitions a time series into an unknown number of approximately stationary segments, where some spectral…
In this paper, by extending the classic stochastic integrals, we investigate three kinds of more general stochastic integrals: Lebesgue-Stieltjes integrals on predictable sets of interval type (in short: PSITs), stochastic integrals on…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
A novel approach is employed and developed to derive transition probabilities for a simple time-inhomogeneous birth-death process. Algebraic probability theory and Lie algebraic treatments make it easy to treat the time-inhomogeneous cases.…
We present a novel extension of the SINDy framework to delay differential equations with {\it distributed delays} and {\it renewal equations}, where typically the dependence from the past manifests via integrals in which the history is…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a regression technique developed by Chipman et al. (2008). Its usefulness in standard regression settings has been clearly demonstrated, but it has not been applied to time series analysis as…