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When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…
We study a class of iterative combinatorial auctions which can be viewed as subgradient descent methods for the problem of pricing bundles to balance supply and demand. We provide concrete convergence rates for auctions in this class,…
Multi-label Classification (MLC) assigns an instance to one or more non-exclusive classes. A challenge arises when the dataset contains a large proportion of instances with no assigned class, referred to as negative data, which can…
In the e-commerce space, accurate prediction of delivery dates plays a major role in customer experience as well as in optimizing the supply chain operations. Predicting a date later than the actual delivery date might sometimes result in…
We examine two types of binary betting markets, whose primary goal is for profit (such as sports gambling) or to gain information (such as prediction markets). We articulate the interplay between belief and price-setting to analyse both…
A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…
Well-known for its simplicity and effectiveness in classification, AdaBoost, however, suffers from overfitting when class-conditional distributions have significant overlap. Moreover, it is very sensitive to noise that appears in the…
Binary classification is a task that involves the classification of data into one of two distinct classes. It is widely utilized in various fields. However, conventional classifiers tend to make overconfident predictions for data that…
Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability…
Most classification models can be considered as the process of matching templates. However, when intra-class uncertainty/variability is not considered, especially for datasets containing unbalanced classes, this may lead to classification…
Modern machine learning models can be accurate on average yet still make mistakes that dominate deployment cost. We introduce Locus, a distribution-free wrapper that produces a per-input loss-scale reliability score for a fixed prediction…
In cases of uncertainty, a multi-class classifier preferably returns a set of candidate classes instead of predicting a single class label with little guarantee. More precisely, the classifier should strive for an optimal balance between…
Set prediction is about learning to predict a collection of unordered variables with unknown interrelations. Training such models with set losses imposes the structure of a metric space over sets. We focus on stochastic and underdefined…
This article introduces an advanced analytical approach for predicting backorders in inventory management. Backorder refers to an order that cannot be immediately fulfilled due to stock depletion. Multiple classification techniques,…
Classification involves the learning of the mapping function that associates input samples to corresponding target label. There are two major categories of classification problems: Single-label classification and Multi-label classification.…
Predictive models that are developed in a regulated industry or a regulated application, like determination of credit worthiness, must be interpretable and rational (e.g., meaningful improvements in basic credit behavior must result in…
Implicit bias describes the phenomenon where optimization-based training algorithms, without explicit regularization, show a preference for simple estimators even when more complex estimators have equal objective values. Multiple works have…
Many evaluation methods exist, each for a particular prediction task, and there are a number of prediction tasks commonly performed including classification and regression. In binarised regression, binary decisions are generated from a…
We address the problem of building a decision model for a specific bidding situation in the game of Bridge. We propose the following multi-step methodology i) Build a set of examples for the decision problem and use simulations to associate…
The goal of confidence-set learning in the binary classification setting is to construct two sets, each with a specific probability guarantee to cover a class. An observation outside the overlap of the two sets is deemed to be from one of…