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When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

We study a class of iterative combinatorial auctions which can be viewed as subgradient descent methods for the problem of pricing bundles to balance supply and demand. We provide concrete convergence rates for auctions in this class,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Jacob Abernethy , Sébastien Lahaie , Matus Telgarsky

Multi-label Classification (MLC) assigns an instance to one or more non-exclusive classes. A challenge arises when the dataset contains a large proportion of instances with no assigned class, referred to as negative data, which can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Dumindu Tissera , Omar Awadallah , Muhammad Umair Danish , Ayan Sadhu , Katarina Grolinger

In the e-commerce space, accurate prediction of delivery dates plays a major role in customer experience as well as in optimizing the supply chain operations. Predicting a date later than the actual delivery date might sometimes result in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Preethi V , Nachiappan Sundaram , Ravindra Babu Tallamraju

We examine two types of binary betting markets, whose primary goal is for profit (such as sports gambling) or to gain information (such as prediction markets). We articulate the interplay between belief and price-setting to analyse both…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Haiqing Zhu , Alexander Soen , Yun Kuen Cheung , Lexing Xie

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

Well-known for its simplicity and effectiveness in classification, AdaBoost, however, suffers from overfitting when class-conditional distributions have significant overlap. Moreover, it is very sensitive to noise that appears in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-22 Zhi Xiao , Zhe Luo , Bo Zhong , Xin Dang

Binary classification is a task that involves the classification of data into one of two distinct classes. It is widely utilized in various fields. However, conventional classifiers tend to make overconfident predictions for data that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Shoma Yokura , Akihisa Ichiki

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-18 Adrian Barbu , Nathan Lay

Most classification models can be considered as the process of matching templates. However, when intra-class uncertainty/variability is not considered, especially for datasets containing unbalanced classes, this may lead to classification…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-13 He Zhu , Shan Yu

Modern machine learning models can be accurate on average yet still make mistakes that dominate deployment cost. We introduce Locus, a distribution-free wrapper that produces a per-input loss-scale reliability score for a fixed prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Matheus Barreto , Mário de Castro , Thiago R. Ramos , Denis Valle , Rafael Izbicki

In cases of uncertainty, a multi-class classifier preferably returns a set of candidate classes instead of predicting a single class label with little guarantee. More precisely, the classifier should strive for an optimal balance between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-28 Thomas Mortier , Marek Wydmuch , Krzysztof Dembczyński , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Set prediction is about learning to predict a collection of unordered variables with unknown interrelations. Training such models with set losses imposes the structure of a metric space over sets. We focus on stochastic and underdefined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 David W. Zhang , Gertjan J. Burghouts , Cees G. M. Snoek

This article introduces an advanced analytical approach for predicting backorders in inventory management. Backorder refers to an order that cannot be immediately fulfilled due to stock depletion. Multiple classification techniques,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-25 Sarit Maitra , Sukanya Kundu

Classification involves the learning of the mapping function that associates input samples to corresponding target label. There are two major categories of classification problems: Single-label classification and Multi-label classification.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-06 Meng Joo Er , Rajasekar Venkatesan , Ning Wang

Predictive models that are developed in a regulated industry or a regulated application, like determination of credit worthiness, must be interpretable and rational (e.g., meaningful improvements in basic credit behavior must result in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-13 Bob Vanderheyden , Jennifer Priestley

Implicit bias describes the phenomenon where optimization-based training algorithms, without explicit regularization, show a preference for simple estimators even when more complex estimators have equal objective values. Multiple works have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Hrithik Ravi , Clayton Scott , Daniel Soudry , Yutong Wang

Many evaluation methods exist, each for a particular prediction task, and there are a number of prediction tasks commonly performed including classification and regression. In binarised regression, binary decisions are generated from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-18 Matthew Dirks , David Poole

We address the problem of building a decision model for a specific bidding situation in the game of Bridge. We propose the following multi-step methodology i) Build a set of examples for the decision problem and use simulations to associate…

The goal of confidence-set learning in the binary classification setting is to construct two sets, each with a specific probability guarantee to cover a class. An observation outside the overlap of the two sets is deemed to be from one of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Wenbo Wang , Xingye Qiao
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