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The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-17 Mohamed Ben Alaya , Walid Ben Aribi , Slimane Ben Miled

Insurance risks data typically exhibit skewed behaviour. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to capture the main features of these datasets. This work extends the methodology introduced in Villa and Walker (2014a) by considering…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-19 Fabrizio Leisen , Juan Miguel Marin , Cristiano Villa

The skewing mechanism of Azzalini for continuous distributions is used for the first time to derive a new generalization of the geometric distribution. Various structural properties of the proposed distribution are investigated.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-12 Seng Huat Ong , Subrata Chakraborty , Aniket Biswas

We consider optimal decision-making problems in an uncertain environment. In particular, we consider the case in which the distribution of the input is unknown, yet there is abundant historical data drawn from the distribution. In this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-03 Zizhuo Wang , Peter Glynn , Yinyu Ye

We introduce the beta generalized normal distribution which is obtained by compounding the beta and generalized normal [Nadarajah, S., A generalized normal distribution, \emph{Journal of Applied Statistics}. 32, 685--694, 2005]…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-06 R. J. Cintra , L. C. Rêgo , G. M. Cordeiro , A. D. C. Nascimento

A new unimodal distribution family indexed by the mode and three other parameters is derived from a mixture of a Gumbel distribution for the maximum and a Gumbel distribution for the minimum. Properties of the proposed distribution are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Qingyang Liu , Xianzheng Huang , Haiming Zhou

To accurately predict the regional spread of Covid-19 infection, this study proposes a novel hybrid model which combines a Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network with dynamic behavioral models. Several factors and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-04-08 Seid Miad Zandavi , Taha Hossein Rashidi , Fatemeh Vafaee

COVID-19 pandemic has an unprecedented impact all over the world since early 2020. During this public health crisis, reliable forecasting of the disease becomes critical for resource allocation and administrative planning. The results from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Xiaoyong Jin , Yu-Xiang Wang , Xifeng Yan

Correlated binary response data with covariates are ubiquitous in longitudinal or spatial studies. Among the existing statistical models the most well-known one for this type of data is the multivariate probit model, which uses a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-08 Zhongwei Zhang , Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle , Marc G. Genton , Raphaël Huser

The evolution of epidemiological parameters, such as instantaneous reproduction number Rt, is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current estimates of time-varying epidemiological parameters often…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-26 Xian Yang , Shuo Wang , Yuting Xing , Ling Li , Richard Yi Da Xu , Karl J. Friston , Yike Guo

Predicting Pandemic evolution involves complex modeling challenges, often requiring detailed discrete mathematics executed on large volumes of epidemiological data. Differential equations have the advantage of offering smooth, well-behaved…

Biological Physics · Physics 2023-02-28 Clara Bender , Abhimanyu Ghosh , Hamed Vakili , Preetam Ghosh , Avik W. Ghosh

The beta model is the most important distribution for fitting data with the unit interval. However, the beta distribution is not suitable to model bimodal unit interval data. In this paper, we propose a bimodal beta distribution constructed…

Three-way data can be conveniently modelled by using matrix variate distributions. Although there has been a lot of work for the matrix variate normal distribution, there is little work in the area of matrix skew distributions. Three matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-15 Michael P. B. Gallaugher , Paul D. McNicholas

We propose a general approach for encouraging fairness in survival analysis models based on minimizing a worst-case error across all subpopulations that occur with at least a user-specified probability. This approach can be used to convert…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-18 Shu Hu , George H. Chen

Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-21 Raphael Morsomme , Jason Xu

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Jenny Huang , Raphaël Morsomme , David Dunson , Jason Xu

The bivariate Gaussian distribution has been a key model for many developments in statistics. However, many real-world phenomena generate data that follow asymmetric distributions, and consequently bivariate normal model is inappropriate in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-08 Roberto Vila , Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan , Helton Saulo , Ana Protazio

The systematic collection of longitudinal data is very common in practice, making mixed models widely used. Most developments around these models focus on modeling the mean trajectory of repeated measurements, typically under the assumption…

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-04 Michel Besserve , Simon Buchholz , Bernhard Schölkopf

The density ratio model (DRM) is a semiparametric model that relates the distributions from multiple samples to a nonparametrically defined reference distribution via exponential tilting, with finite-dimensional parameters governing their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 James Hugh McVittie , Archer Gong Zhang