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We develop a pseudo maximum likelihood method for latent factor analysis in short panels without imposing sphericity nor Gaussianity. We derive an asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test for the number of factors. On a large…
While seasonality inherent to raw macroeconomic data is commonly removed by seasonal adjustment techniques before it is used for structural inference, this may distort valuable information in the data. As an alternative method to commonly…
As evidenced by various recent and significant papers within the frequentist literature, along with numerous applications in macroeconomics, genomics, and neuroscience, there continues to be substantial interest to understand the…
High dimensionality comparable to sample size is common in many statistical problems. We examine covariance matrix estimation in the asymptotic framework that the dimensionality $p$ tends to $\infty$ as the sample size $n$ increases.…
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…
A new partial functional linear regression model for panel data with time varying parameters is introduced. The parameter vector of the multivariate model component is allowed to be completely time varying while the function-valued…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models enable efficient image generation via next-scale prediction but face escalating computational costs as sequence length grows. Existing static pruning methods degrade performance by permanently removing…
Factor analysis aims to describe high dimensional random vectors by means of a small number of unknown common factors. In mathematical terms, it is required to decompose the covariance matrix $\Sigma$ of the random vector as the sum of a…
Panel vector auto-regressive (VAR) models are widely used to capture the dynamics of multivariate time series across different subpopulations, where each subpopulation shares a common set of variables. In this work, we propose a panel VAR…
Semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) models directly relate the predicted failure times to covariates and are a useful alternative to models that work on the hazard function or the survival function. For case-cohort data, much less…
This study introduces a new analytical framework for quantifying multivariate risk measures. Using the Wishart process, which is a stochastic process with values in the space of positive definite matrices, we derive several conditional tail…
We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of flexibility of our approach is a nonparametric observation…
We propose a discrete-time econometric model that combines autoregressive filters with factor regressions to predict stock returns for portfolio optimisation purposes. In particular, we test both robust linear regressions and general…
We propose a novel approach to sentiment data filtering for a portfolio of assets. In our framework, a dynamic factor model drives the evolution of the observed sentiment and allows to identify two distinct components: a long-term…
This paper investigates the high-dimensional linear regression with highly correlated covariates. In this setup, the traditional sparsity assumption on the regression coefficients often fails to hold, and consequently many model selection…
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…
Tracking the build-up of financial vulnerabilities is a key component of financial stability policy. Due to the complexity of the financial system, this task is daunting, and there have been several proposals on how to manage this goal. One…