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Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and generalizing them to broader populations is essential for personalizing treatment rules but is complicated by selection bias due to trial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Rikuta Hamaya , Etsuji Suzuki , Konan Hara

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

Random Forest has become one of the most popular tools for feature selection. Its ability to deal with high-dimensional data makes this algorithm especially useful for studies in neuroimaging and bioinformatics. Despite its popularity and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-13 Ender Konukoglu , Melanie Ganz

This paper proposes a method for measuring conditional feature importance via generative modeling. In explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), conditional feature importance assesses the impact of a feature on a prediction model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Kristin Blesch , Niklas Koenen , Jan Kapar , Pegah Golchian , Lukas Burk , Markus Loecher , Marvin N. Wright

Healthcare decision-making requires not only accurate predictions but also insights into how factors influence patient outcomes. While traditional Machine Learning (ML) models excel at predicting outcomes, such as identifying high risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Sheresh Zahoor , Pietro Liò , Gaël Dias , Mohammed Hasanuzzaman

Causal inference with observational studies often suffers from unmeasured confounding, yielding biased estimators based on the unconfoundedness assumption. Sensitivity analysis assesses how the causal conclusions change with respect to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Sizhu Lu , Peng Ding

In many applications, heterogeneous treatment effects on a censored response variable are of primary interest, and it is natural to evaluate the effects at different quantiles (e.g., median). The large number of potential effect modifiers,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-13 Huichen Zhu , Yifei Sun , Ying Wei

Covariate adjustment can improve precision in analyzing randomized experiments. With fully observed data, regression adjustment and propensity score weighting are asymptotically equivalent in improving efficiency over unadjusted analysis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-06 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding , Fan Li

Evaluating the causal effect of an intervention on multivariate outcomes is challenging when the outcomes are interdependent and derived rather than directly observed. Effective connectivity, which summarizes the directional neural…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Haiyue Song , Ani Eloyan , Youjin Lee

In prediction tasks with multi-class outcomes, identifying covariates specifically associated with one or more outcome classes can be important. Conventional variable importance measures (VIMs) from random forests (RFs), like permutation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-16 Roman Hornung , Alexander Hapfelmeier

Observational studies often use linear regression to assess the effect of ambient air pollution on outcomes of interest, such as human health indicators or crop yields. Yet pollution datasets are typically noisy and include only a subset of…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-08 Dan M. Kluger , David B. Lobell , Art B. Owen

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donald B. Rubin

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Liangyuan Hu , Chenyang Gu , Michael Lopez , Jiayi Ji , Juan Wisnivesky

Instrumental variable methods are widely used in medical and social science research to draw causal conclusions when the treatment and outcome are confounded by unmeasured confounding variables. One important feature of such studies is that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Bo Zhang , Siyu Heng , Emily J. MacKay , Ting Ye

We show that causal effects can be identified when there is bunching in the distribution of a continuous treatment variable, without imposing any parametric assumptions. This yields a new nonparametric method for overcoming selection bias…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-08 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Leonard Goff , Eric Nielsen

Variable selection for optimal treatment regime in a clinical trial or an observational study is getting more attention. Most existing variable selection techniques focused on selecting variables that are important for prediction, therefore…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-22 Ailin Fan , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-24 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

Confounding by unmeasured spatial variables has received some attention in the spatial statistics and causal inference literatures, but concepts and approaches have remained largely separated. In this paper, we aim to bridge these distinct…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 Patrick Schnell , Georgia Papadogeorgou

This study introduces a data-driven, machine learning-based method to detect suitable control variables and instruments for assessing the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data. Our approach tests the joint…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Nicolas Apfel , Julia Hatamyar , Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

In large observational studies, the case-cohort design is commonly used to reduce the cost associated with covariate measurement. For survival outcomes, literature has suggested that the restricted mean survival time (RMST) be a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Andy Ni , Wei-En Lu , Bo Lu