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We study batched nonparametric contextual bandits under a margin condition when the margin parameter $\alpha$ is unknown. To capture the statistical cost of this ignorance, we introduce the regret inflation criterion, defined as the ratio…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Rong Jiang , Cong Ma

Many applications require optimizing an unknown, noisy function that is expensive to evaluate. We formalize this task as a multi-armed bandit problem, where the payoff function is either sampled from a Gaussian process (GP) or has low RKHS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Niranjan Srinivas , Andreas Krause , Sham M. Kakade , Matthias Seeger

The most prominent feedback models for the best expert problem are the full information and bandit models. In this work we consider a simple feedback model that generalizes both, where on every round, in addition to a bandit feedback, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 Eyal Gofer , Guy Gilboa

Bayesian classification labels observations based on given prior information, namely class-a priori and class-conditional probabilities. Bayes' risk is the minimum expected classification cost that is achieved by the Bayes' test, the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Frank Nielsen

Regret is the cost of uncertainty in algorithmic decision-making. Quantifying regret typically requires computationally expensive simulation via Sample Average Approximation (SAA), with complexity $\mathcal{O}(Bn^{2}d^{3})$ in the number of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-15 Irene Aldridge

In high-stakes applications, predictive models must not only produce accurate predictions but also quantify and communicate their uncertainty. Reject-option prediction addresses this by allowing the model to abstain when prediction…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Vojtech Franc , Jakub Paplham

In this paper, we study a learning problem in which a forecaster only observes partial information. By properly rescaling the problem, we heuristically derive a limiting PDE on Wasserstein space which characterizes the asymptotic behavior…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Erhan Bayraktar , Ibrahim Ekren , Xin Zhang

We study the Bayesian regret of the renowned Thompson Sampling algorithm in contextual bandits with binary losses and adversarially-selected contexts. We adapt the information-theoretic perspective of \cite{RvR16} to the contextual setting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Gergely Neu , Julia Olkhovskaya , Matteo Papini , Ludovic Schwartz

In the classic expert problem, $\Phi$-regret measures the gap between the learner's total loss and that achieved by applying the best action transformation $\phi \in \Phi$. A recent work by Lu et al., [2025] introduces an adaptive algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Soumita Hait , Ping Li , Haipeng Luo , Mengxiao Zhang

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Fengshuo Zhang , Chao Gao

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Marvin Schmitt , Desi R. Ivanova , Daniel Habermann , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev

We propose a framework which generalizes "decision making with structured observations" by allowing robust (i.e. multivalued) models. In this framework, each model associates each decision with a convex set of probability distributions over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-27 Alexander Appel , Vanessa Kosoy

Robust aggregation integrates predictions from multiple experts without knowledge of the experts' information structures. Prior work assumes experts are Bayesian, providing predictions as perfect posteriors based on their signals. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Yuqing Kong , Shu Wang , Ying Wang

Recent breakthrough results by Dagan, Daskalakis, Fishelson and Golowich [2023] and Peng and Rubinstein [2023] established an efficient algorithm attaining at most $\epsilon$ swap regret over extensive-form strategy spaces of dimension $N$…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Brian Hu Zhang , Ioannis Anagnostides , Gabriele Farina , Tuomas Sandholm

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-01 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Jae Kwang Kim

In this work, we extend the concept of the $p$-mean welfare objective from social choice theory (Moulin 2004) to study $p$-mean regret in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. The $p$-mean regret, defined as the difference between the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Anand Krishna , Philips George John , Adarsh Barik , Vincent Y. F. Tan

Online reinforcement learning in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) remains less theoretically and algorithmically developed than its episodic counterpart, with many algorithms suffering from high ``burn-in'' costs and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Guy Zamir , Matthew Zurek , Yudong Chen

We investigate the problem of cumulative regret minimization for individual sequence prediction with respect to the best expert in a finite family of size K under limited access to information. We assume that in each round, the learner can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-06 El Mehdi Saad , G. Blanchard

Thompson Sampling has been widely used for contextual bandit problems due to the flexibility of its modeling power. However, a general theory for this class of methods in the frequentist setting is still lacking. In this paper, we present a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Tong Zhang

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Yunwen Yang , Xuming He