Related papers: On a quantile autoregressive conditional duration …
This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional…
A new mixture autoregressive model based on Student's $t$-distribution is proposed. A key feature of our model is that the conditional $t$-distributions of the component models are based on autoregressions that have multivariate…
Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…
Conditional auto-regressive (CAR) distributions are widely used to induce spatial dependence in the geographic analysis of areal data. These distributions establish multivariate dependence networks by defining conditional relationships…
Models characterized by autoregressive structure and random coefficients are powerful tools for the analysis of high-frequency, high-dimensional and volatile time series. The available literature on such models is broad, but also sectorial,…
Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…
Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile…
This article introduces a general class of heavy-tailed autoregressions for modeling integer-valued time series with outliers. The proposed specification is based on a heavy-tailed mixture of negative binomial distributions that features an…
This paper proposes Fourier-based and wavelet-based techniques for analyzing periodic financial time series. Conventional models such as the periodic autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (PGARCH) and periodic autoregressive…
A buffered double autoregressive (BDAR) time series model is proposed in this paper to depict the buffering phenomenon of conditional mean and conditional variance in time series. To build this model, a novel flexible regime switching…
We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…
In ordinary quantile regression, quantiles of different order are estimated one at a time. An alternative approach, which is referred to as quantile regression coefficients modeling (QRCM), is to model quantile regression coefficients as…
In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modeled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting zero values. Zero or close-to-zero durations can be caused by either…
Modeling distributions of covariates, or density estimation, is a core challenge in unsupervised learning. However, the majority of work only considers the joint distribution, which has limited utility in practical situations. A more…
This paper introduces new methods for constructing prediction intervals using quantile-based techniques. The procedures are developed for both classical (homoscedastic) autoregressive models and modern quantile autoregressive models. They…
The modeling of personal accident insurance data has been a topic of extreme relevance in the insurance literature. This kind of data often exhibits positive skewness and heavy tails. In this work, we propose a new quantile regression model…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…
We develop a new methodology for the fitting of nonstationary time series that exhibit nonlinearity, asymmetry, local persistence and changes in location scale and shape of the underlying distribution. In order to achieve this goal, we…
Engle and Russell (1998, Econometrica, 66:1127--1162) apply results from the GARCH literature to prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the (exponential) QMLE for the generalized autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, the…
The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…