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This work presents a new model and estimation procedure for the illness-death survival data where the hazard functions follow accelerated failure time (AFT) models. A shared frailty variate induces positive dependence among failure times of…

Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper…

Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…

In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. However, in BNNs the priors are often specified over the weights which rarely reflects true prior knowledge in large and complex neural network…

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes often utilize survival models that rely on strong assumptions about noninformative censoring or on how individual-level covariates and survival functions are related. When the main interest is…

We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis. The model is centred on a parametric baseline hazard, and uses a Gaussian process to model variations away from it nonparametrically, as well as dependence on covariates.…

Dependent survival data arise in many contexts. One context is clustered survival data, where survival data are collected on clusters such as families or medical centers. Dependent survival data also arise when multiple survival times are…

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

In probabilistic (Bayesian) inferences, we typically want to compute properties of the posterior distribution, describing knowledge of unknown quantities in the context of a particular dataset and the assumed prior information. The marginal…

We develop a flexible Erlang mixture model for survival analysis. The model for the survival density is built from a structured mixture of Erlang densities, mixing on the integer shape parameter with a common scale parameter. The mixture…

Recurrent events often serve as key endpoints in clinical studies but may be prematurely truncated by terminal events such as death, creating selection bias and complicating causal inference. To address this challenge, we develop a Bayesian…

We consider nonparametric inference for event time distributions based on current status data. We show that in this scenario conventional mixture priors, including the popular Dirichlet process mixture prior, lead to biologically…

The paper addresses joint sparsity selection in the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix for high-dimensional multivariate regression models in the Bayesian paradigm. The selected sparsity…

We introduce a numerically tractable formulation of Bayesian joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The longitudinal process is modelled using generalised linear mixed models, while the survival process is modelled using a…

Robust Bayesian inference using density power divergence (DPD) has emerged as a promising approach for handling outliers in statistical estimation. Although the DPD-based posterior offers theoretical guarantees of robustness, its practical…

To adopt neural networks in safety critical domains, knowing whether we can trust their predictions is crucial. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide uncertainty estimates by averaging predictions with respect to the posterior weight…