Related papers: Simple El Ni\~{n}o prediction scheme using the sig…
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…
Many record-breaking climate extremes arise from both greenhouse gas-induced warming and natural climate variability. Marine cloud brightening, a solar geoengineering strategy originally proposed to reduce long-term warming, could…
The effects of El Ni\~no's two distinct flavors, East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki El Ni\~no, on global climate variability have been studied intensively in recent years. Most of these studies have made use of linear…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation global (ENSO) imprint on sea surface temperature comes in many guises. To identify its tropical fingerprints and impacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based on archetypal…
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite…
Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…
Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…
El Nino is an extreme weather event featuring unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is characterized by heavy rains and floods that negatively affect the economic activities of the…
Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El…
The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…
Extreme El Ni\~no events, such as occurred in 1997--1998, can induce severe weather on a global scale, with significant socioeconomic impacts that motivate efforts to understand them better. However, extreme El Ni\~no events are rare, and…
Understanding current global climate requires an understanding of trends both in Earth's atmospheric temperature and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a characteristic large-scale distribution of warm water in the tropical Pacific…
We show that the monthly recorded history (1878-2013) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be well described as a dynamic system that supports an average…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
This study introduces the second version of the Integrated Climate Model (ICM). ICM is developed by the Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics to improve the short-term climate prediction of the East…
Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…
In a statistical analysis of more than a century of data we find a strong connection between strong warm El Nino winter events and high spring precipitation in a band from Southern England eastwards into Asia. This relationship is an…
While most spatial data can be modeled with the assumption that distant points are uncorrelated, some problems require dependence at both far and short distances. We introduce a model to directly incorporate dependence in phenomena that…