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In many natural language processing (NLP) tasks the same input (e.g. source sentence) can have multiple possible outputs (e.g. translations). To analyze how this ambiguity (also known as intrinsic uncertainty) shapes the distribution…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Felix Stahlberg , Ilia Kulikov , Shankar Kumar

The development and evaluation of graph neural networks (GNNs) generally follow the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. Yet this assumption is often untenable in practice due to the uncontrollable data generation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Yiming Xu , Bin Shi , Zhen Peng , Huixiang Liu , Bo Dong , Chen Chen

We propose the Distance-informed Neural Process (DNP), a novel variant of Neural Processes that improves uncertainty estimation by combining global and distance-aware local latent structures. Standard Neural Processes (NPs) often rely on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Aishwarya Venkataramanan , Joachim Denzler

Deep neural networks excel at function approximation, yet they are typically trained from scratch for each new function. On the other hand, Bayesian methods, such as Gaussian Processes (GPs), exploit prior knowledge to quickly infer the…

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples: minor perturbations to input samples intended to deliberately cause misclassification. While an obvious security threat, adversarial examples yield as well insights about the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Kathrin Grosse , David Pfaff , Michael Thomas Smith , Michael Backes

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-08 Javier Antorán , James Urquhart Allingham , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for making reliable decisions in various supervised learning scenarios, particularly when dealing with complex, multimodal data such as images and text. Current approaches often face notable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-30 Xinyu Tian , Xiaotong Shen

Many important problems require modelling large-scale spatio-temporal datasets, with one prevalent example being weather forecasting. Recently, transformer-based approaches have shown great promise in a range of weather forecasting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Matthew Ashman , Cristiana Diaconu , Eric Langezaal , Adrian Weller , Richard E. Turner

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitous tools for modeling and predicting continuous processes in physical and engineering sciences. This is partly due to the fact that one may employ a Gaussian process as an interpolator while facilitating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-16 D. Andrew Brown , Peter Kiessler , John Nicholson

In Hezaveh et al. 2017 we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-29 Laurence Perreault Levasseur , Yashar D. Hezaveh , Risa H. Wechsler

Humans possess a finely tuned sense of uncertainty that helps anticipate potential errors, vital for adaptive behavior and survival. However, the underlying neural mechanisms remain unclear. This study applies moment neural networks (MNNs)…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-11-22 Hengyuan Ma , Wenlian Lu , Jianfeng Feng

Temporal point process (TPP) is commonly used to model the asynchronous event sequence featuring occurrence timestamps and revealed by probabilistic models conditioned on historical impacts. While lots of previous works have focused on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-05 Haitao Lin , Lirong Wu , Guojiang Zhao , Pai Liu , Stan Z. Li

Model Predictive Control (MPC) of an unknown system that is modelled by Gaussian Process (GP) techniques is studied in this paper. Using GP, the variances computed during the modelling and inference processes allow us to take model…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-12-06 Gang Cao , Edmund M-K Lai , Fakhrul Alam

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying reliable Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), where existing approaches primarily rely on Bayesian inference or ensembles. In this paper, we introduce the first credal graph neural networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Matteo Tolloso , Davide Bacciu

This paper studies causal inference with observational data from a single large network. We consider a nonparametric model with interference in both potential outcomes and selection into treatment. Specifically, both stages may be the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Michael P. Leung , Pantelis Loupos

Neural models, with their ability to provide novel representations, have shown promising results in prediction tasks in healthcare. However, patient demographics, medical technology, and quality of care change over time. This often leads to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Miguel Rios , Ameen Abu-Hanna

We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the…

Uncertainty quantification is essential in safety-critical settings--from autonomous driving to aviation, finance, and health--where decisions must rely on conservative bounds rather than point estimates. Predictor-level intervals (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Ruirui Liu , Xuejie Hou , Yiping Jiang , Hui Ren

Fair machine learning (ML) methods help identify and mitigate the risk that algorithms encode or automate social injustices. Algorithmic approaches alone cannot resolve structural inequalities, but they can support socio-technical decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Michelle Seng Ah Lee , Kirtan Padh , David Watson , Niki Kilbertus , Jatinder Singh