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Neural Processes (NPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a,b) are a rich class of models for meta-learning that map data sets directly to predictive stochastic processes. We provide a rigorous analysis of the standard maximum-likelihood objective used to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-12 Wessel P. Bruinsma , James Requeima , Andrew Y. K. Foong , Jonathan Gordon , Richard E. Turner

The standard approaches to neural network implementation yield powerful function approximation capabilities but are limited in their abilities to learn meta representations and reason probabilistic uncertainties in their predictions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Saurav Jha , Dong Gong , Xuesong Wang , Richard E. Turner , Lina Yao

Neural Processes (NPs) are a popular class of approaches for meta-learning. Similar to Gaussian Processes (GPs), NPs define distributions over functions and can estimate uncertainty in their predictions. However, unlike GPs, NPs and their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-09 Tung Nguyen , Aditya Grover

Uncertainty estimation is an important research area to make deep neural networks (DNNs) more trustworthy. While extensive research on uncertainty estimation has been conducted with unimodal data, uncertainty estimation for multimodal data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Myong Chol Jung , He Zhao , Joanna Dipnall , Lan Du

Neural Processes (NPs) are a family of conditional generative models that are able to model a distribution over functions, in a way that allows them to perform predictions at test time conditioned on a number of context points. A recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Jens Petersen , Gregor Köhler , David Zimmerer , Fabian Isensee , Paul F. Jäger , Klaus H. Maier-Hein

Neural processes are a family of models which use neural networks to directly parametrise a map from data sets to predictions. Directly parametrising this map enables the use of expressive neural networks in small-data problems where neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-20 Wessel P. Bruinsma

The wide adoption of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in applications where decision-making under uncertainty is fundamental, has brought a great deal of attention to the ability of these models to accurately quantify the uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-29 Gia-Lac Tran , Edwin V. Bonilla , John P. Cunningham , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

As Deep Learning continues to yield successful applications in Computer Vision, the ability to quantify all forms of uncertainty is a paramount requirement for its safe and reliable deployment in the real-world. In this work, we leverage…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Eduardo D C Carvalho , Ronald Clark , Andrea Nicastro , Paul H J Kelly

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been extensively used in various real-world applications. However, the predictive uncertainty of GNNs stemming from diverse sources such as inherent randomness in data and model training errors can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Fangxin Wang , Yuqing Liu , Kay Liu , Yibo Wang , Sourav Medya , Philip S. Yu

This paper presents a probabilistic framework to obtain both reliable and fast uncertainty estimates for predictions with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Our main contribution is a practical and principled combination of DNNs with sparse…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Jongseok Lee , Jianxiang Feng , Matthias Humt , Marcus G. Müller , Rudolph Triebel

Neural Processes (NPs) are meta-learning models that learn to map sets of observations to approximations of the corresponding posterior predictive distributions. By accommodating variable-sized, unstructured collections of observations and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Peiman Mohseni , Nick Duffield

Conditional Neural Processes (CNP; Garnelo et al., 2018) are an attractive family of meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions, enable fast inference at test time, and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Stratis Markou , James Requeima , Wessel Bruinsma , Richard Turner

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

Forecasting future events is a fundamental challenge for temporal knowledge graphs (tKG). As in real life predicting a mean function is most of the time not sufficient, but the question remains how confident can we be about our prediction?…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-13 Soeren Nolting , Zhen Han , Volker Tresp

A neural network (NN) is a parameterised function that can be tuned via gradient descent to approximate a labelled collection of data with high precision. A Gaussian process (GP), on the other hand, is a probabilistic model that defines a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-05 Marta Garnelo , Jonathan Schwarz , Dan Rosenbaum , Fabio Viola , Danilo J. Rezende , S. M. Ali Eslami , Yee Whye Teh

Neural Processes (NPs) families encode distributions over functions to a latent representation, given context data, and decode posterior mean and variance at unknown locations. Since mean and variance are derived from the same latent space,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Xuesong Wang , Lina Yao , Xianzhi Wang , Feiping Nie

Accurate and trustworthy epidemic forecasting is an important problem that has impact on public health planning and disease mitigation. Most existing epidemic forecasting models disregard uncertainty quantification, resulting in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Lingkai Kong , Alexander Rodríguez , Chao Zhang , B. Aditya Prakash

Uncertainty quantification has become an important factor in understanding the data representations produced by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Despite their predictive capabilities being ever useful across industrial workspaces, the inherent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Tommy Woodley , Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Matteo Tolloso , Davide Bacciu , Fabio Cuzzolin

Accurate modelling and quantification of predictive uncertainty is crucial in deep learning since it allows a model to make safer decisions when the data is ambiguous and facilitates the users' understanding of the model's confidence in its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Soumyasundar Pal , Liheng Ma , Amine Natik , Yingxue Zhang , Mark Coates

A common theoretical approach to understanding neural networks is to take an infinite-width limit, at which point the outputs become Gaussian process (GP) distributed. This is known as a neural network Gaussian process (NNGP). However, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Ben Anson , Edward Milsom , Laurence Aitchison
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