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Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

Monte Carlo sampling techniques have broad applications in machine learning, Bayesian posterior inference, and parameter estimation. Often the target distribution takes the form of a product distribution over a dataset with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-19 Charles Matthews , Jonathan Weare

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

We show that Markov couplings can be used to improve the accuracy of Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations in some situations where the steady-state probability distribution is not explicitly known. The technique generalizes the notion of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Jonathan B. Goodman , Kevin K. Lin

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-24 Tin D. Nguyen , Brian L. Trippe , Tamara Broderick

We propose SYNCE (synchronized step correlation enhancement), a new algorithm for coupling Markov chains within multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) estimators. We apply this algorithm to solve Bayesian inverse problems using…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-03 Sanjan C. Muchandimath , Alex A. Gorodetsky

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are simple and extremely powerful techniques to sample from almost arbitrary distributions. The flaw in practice is that it can take a large and/or unknown amount of time to converge to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-13 Xianghang Liu , Justin Domke

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

We elaborate the idea behind Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in a mathematically coherent, yet simple and understandable way. To this end, we proof a pivotal convergence theorem for finite Markov chains and a minimal version of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-30 Tobias Siems

Phylogenetic trees describe the relationships between species in the evolutionary process, and provide information about the rates of diversification. To understand the mechanisms behind macroevolution, we consider a class of multitype…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-07 Mingqi He , Sophie Hautphenne , Yao-ban Chan

We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Rocco Caprio , Adam M. Johansen

Phylogenetic inference, the task of reconstructing how related sequences evolved from common ancestors, is a central objective in evolutionary genomics. The current state-of-the-art methods exploit probabilistic models of sequence evolution…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-19 Luc Blassel , Noémie Sauvage , Pierre Barrat-Charlaix , Bastien Boussau , Nicolas Lartillot , Laurent Jacob

Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-07 Roberto Casarin , Radu V. Craiu , Fabrizio Leisen

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Emanuel Sommer , Jakob Robnik , Giorgi Nozadze , Uros Seljak , David Rügamer

An important aspect of Bayesian model selection is how to deal with huge model spaces, since exhaustive enumeration of all the models entertained is unfeasible and inferences have to be based on the very small proportion of models visited.…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-25 Gonzalo Garcia-Donato , Miguel Angel Martinez-Beneito

Classification of gene trees is an important task both in the analysis of multi-locus phylogenetic data, and assessment of the convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analyses used in Bayesian phylogenetic tree reconstruction. The…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2024-06-10 Georgios Aliatimis , Ruriko Yoshida , Burak Boyaci , James A. Grant

The standard coalescent is widely used in evolutionary biology and population genetics to model the ancestral history of a sample of molecular sequences as a rooted and ranked binary tree. In this paper, we present a representation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Mackenzie Simper , Julia A. Palacios

Bayesian inference for undirected graphical models is mostly restricted to the class of decomposable graphs, as they enjoy a rich set of properties making them amenable to high-dimensional problems. While parameter inference is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Mohamad Elmasri

In order to solve tasks like uncertainty quantification or hypothesis tests in Bayesian imaging inverse problems, we often have to draw samples from the arising posterior distribution. For the usually log-concave but high-dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-23 Matthias J. Ehrhardt , Lorenz Kuger , Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb