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We introduce a variant of the classic prophet inequality, called \emph{residual prophet inequality} (RPI). In the RPI problem, we consider a finite sequence of $n$ nonnegative independent random values with known distributions, and a known…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Jose Correa , Sebastian Perez-Salazar , Dana Pizarro , Bruno Ziliotto

We revisit three fundamental problems in algorithms under uncertainty: the Secretary Problem, Prophet Inequality, and Stochastic Probing, each subject to general downward-closed constraints. When elements have binary values, all three…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Aviad Rubinstein , Sahil Singla

Prophet inequalities are a central object of study in optimal stopping theory. In the iid model, a gambler sees values in an online fashion, sampled independently from a given distribution. Upon observing each value, the gambler either…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Giordano Giambartolomei , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn , Raimundo Saona

There are two major models of value uncertainty in the optimal stopping literature: the secretary model, which assumes no prior knowledge, and the prophet inequality model, which assumes full information about value distributions. In…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Tian Bai , Zhiyi Huang , Chui Shan Lee , Dongchen Li

We study the i.i.d. $k$-selection prophet inequality problem, where a decision-maker sequentially observes $n$ independent nonnegative rewards and may accept at most $k$ of them without knowledge of future realizations. The objective is to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Jieming Kong , Karthyek Murthy

The setting of the classic prophet inequality is as follows: a gambler is shown the probability distributions of $n$ independent, non-negative random variables with finite expectations. In their indexed order, a value is drawn from each…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-12-31 Jack Wang

Suppose we are given integer $k \leq n$ and $n$ boxes labeled $1,\ldots, n$ by an adversary, each containing a number chosen from an unknown distribution. We have to choose an order to sequentially open these boxes, and each time we open…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Mohammad Taghi Hajiaghayi , Dariusz R. Kowalski , Piotr Krysta , Jan Olkowski

Online advertising has motivated interest in online selection problems. Displaying ads to the right users benefits both the platform (e.g., via pay-per-click) and the advertisers (by increasing their reach). In practice, not all users click…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-08-16 Sebastian Perez-Salazar , Mohit Singh , Alejandro Toriello

In this paper, we present a novel method for computing the asymptotic values of both the optimal threshold, and the probability of success in sequences of optimal stopping problems. This method, based on the resolution of a first-order…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-18 L. Bayón , P. Fortuny , J. M. Grau , A. M. Oller-Marcén , M. M. Ruiz

In this work we initiate the study of buy-and-sell prophet inequalities. We start by considering what is arguably the most fundamental setting. In this setting the online algorithm observes a sequence of prices one after the other. At each…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-05-26 José Correa , Andrés Cristi , Paul Dütting , Mohammad Hajiaghayi , Jan Olkowski , Kevin Schewior

We revisit the problem of selecting an item from $n$ choices that appear before us in random sequential order so as to minimize the expected rank of the item selected. In particular, we examine the stopping rule where we reject the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-10 Béla Bajnok , Svetoslav Semov

We present a new variant of the secretary problem. Let $A$ be a totally ordered set of $n$ \emph{applicants}. Given $P\subseteq A$ and $x\in A$, let $rr(P,x)=\vert\{z\in P \mid z\leq x\}\vert\mbox{ }$ be the \emph{relative rank of} $x$…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-10 Josef Rukavicka

In this paper, we investigate two variants of the secretary problem. In these variants, we are presented with a sequence of numbers $X_i$ that come from distributions $\mathcal{D}_i$, and that arrive in either random or adversarial order.…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Pranav Nuti , Jan Vondrák

This paper introduces a heuristic framework for the Best Secretary Problem, where one item must be selected using rank information only. We develop five data-responsive rules extending classical fixed-cutoff methods: an expected-record…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-14 Eugene Seong

In the online random-arrival model, an algorithm receives a sequence of n requests that arrive in a random order. The algorithm is expected to make an irrevocable decision with regard to each request based only on the observed history. We…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-07-08 Shai Vardi

We consider prophet inequalities under downward-closed constraints. In this problem, a decision-maker makes immediate and irrevocable choices on arriving elements, subject to constraints. Traditionally, performance is compared to the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Tomer Ezra , Stefano Leonardi , Rebecca Reiffenhäuser , Matteo Russo , Alexandros Tsigonias-Dimitriadis

In the classical prophet inequality, a gambler observes a sequence of stochastic rewards $V_1,...,V_n$ and must decide, for each reward $V_i$, whether to keep it and stop the game or to forfeit the reward forever and reveal the next value…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2013-07-16 Pablo D. Azar , Robert Kleinberg , S. Matthew Weinberg

The secretary and the prophet inequality problems are central to the field of Stopping Theory. Recently, there has been a lot of work in generalizing these models to multiple items because of their applications in mechanism design. The most…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-03-20 Soheil Ehsani , MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Thomas Kesselheim , Sahil Singla

Prophet inequalities compare online stopping strategies against an omniscient "prophet" using distributional knowledge. In this work, we augment this model with a conservative prediction of the maximum realized value. We quantify the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Johannes Brüstle , Ilan Reuven Cohen , Stefano Leonardi

The classical Prophet Inequality arises from a fundamental problem in optimal-stopping theory. In this problem, a gambler sees a finite sequence of independent, non-negative random variables. If he stops the sequence at any time, he…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-10 Van-Anh Truong , Xinshang Wang