Related papers: Extreme events in globally coupled chaotic maps

Conventional survival analysis methods are typically ineffective to characterize heterogeneity in the population while such information can be used to assist predictive modeling. In this study, we propose a hybrid survival analysis method,…

Globally disruptive events include asteroid/comet impacts, large igneous provinces and glaciations, all of which have been considered as contributors to mass extinctions. Understanding the overall relationship between the timings of the…

Human settlements on Earth are scattered in a multitude of shapes, sizes and spatial arrangements. These patterns are often not random but a result of complex geographical, cultural, economic and historical processes that have profound…

We investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of a network of coupled chaotic maps, with varying degrees of randomness in coupling connections. While strictly nearest neighbour coupling never allows spatiotemporal synchronization in our…

The affect of demographic stochasticity of a system of globally coupled chaotic maps is considered. A two-step model is studied, where the intra-patch chaotic dynamics is followed by a migration step that coupled all patches; the…

Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…

We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality…

We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and…

Collective stable chaos consists of the persistence of disordered patterns in dynamical spatiotemporal systems possessing a negative maximum Lyapunov exponent. We analyze the role of the topology of connectivity on the emergence and…

In a wide variety of situations, anomalies in the behaviour of a complex system, whose health is monitored through the observation of a random vector X = (X1,. .. , X d) valued in R d , correspond to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme…

Quantum chaos is the study of quantum systems whose classical description is chaotic. How does chaos manifest itself in the quantum world? In this spirit, we study the dynamical generation of entanglement as a signature of chaos in a system…

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…

We study the transition to synchronization in large, dense networks of chaotic circle maps, where an exact solution of the mean-field dynamics in the infinite network and all-to-all coupling limit is known. In dense networks of finite size…

Modularity is a key organizing principle in real-world large-scale complex networks. Many real-world networks exhibit modular structures such as transportation infrastructures, communication networks and social media. Having the knowledge…

The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…

We provide an analytic, microscopic analysis of extreme events in an adaptive population comprising competing agents (e.g. species, cells, traders, data-packets). Such large changes tend to dictate the long-term dynamical behaviour of many…

Effect of noise in inducing order on various chaotically evolving systems is reviewed, with special emphasis on systems consisting of coupled chaotic elements. In many situations it is observed that the uncoupled elements when driven by…

Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…