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Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across three scales: (1) pathogen evolution, often punctuated by the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-04 Quang Dang Nguyen , Sheryl L. Chang , Carl J. E. Suster , Rebecca J. Rockett , Vitali Sintchenko , Tania C. Sorrell , Mikhail Prokopenko

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential threat of future epidemics caused by novel viruses, we developed a flexible framework for modeling disease intervention effects. This tool is intended to aid decision makers at multiple…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Karleigh Pine , Razvan Veliche , Jared Bennett , Joel Klipfel

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-31 Jorge P. Zubelli , Jennifer Loria , Vinicius V. L. Albani

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more than 30.35 million infections and 9, 50, 625 deaths in 212 countries over the last few months. Different drug intervention acting at multiple stages of pathogenesis of COVID-19 can substantially…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-01 Bishal Chhetri , Vijay M. Bhagat , D. K. K. Vamsi , Ananth V S , Bhanu Prakash , Swapna Muthuswamy , Pradeep Deshmukh , Carani B Sanjeevi

The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-25 Ahmed S. Elgazzar

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-26 Arghya Das , Abhishek Dhar , Srashti Goyal , Anupam Kundu , Saurav Pandey

Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-20 Cameron A. Smith , Ben Ashby

This paper presents a study on a compartmental epidemic model for COVID-19, examining the stability of its equilibrium points upon the introduction of vaccination as a strategy to mitigate the spread of the disease. Initially, the SIQR…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-29 Leonardo R. S. Rodrigues , Felipe Gabrielli

We propose a time-fractional compartmental model (SEI$_A$I$_S$HRD) comprising of the susceptible, exposed, infected (asymptomatic and symptomatic), hospitalized, recovered and dead population for the Covid-19 pandemic. We study the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-03-17 Toheeb A. Biala , Abdul Q. Khaliq

The goal of this article is to analyze some compartmental models specially designed to model the spread of a disease whose transmission has the same features as COVID-19. The major contributions of this article are: (1) Rigorously find…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-01 Gonçalo Oliveira

We introduce a minimal multiscale framework that links within-host virus dynamics to population-level SIRS epidemiology through explicit, bidirectional coupling. At the microscopic layer, a two variant quasispecies (master and mutant…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Juan C. Muñoz-Sánchez , J. Tomás Lázaro , Josep Sardanyés , Santiago F. Elena

In this paper, a mathematical analysis of the global dynamics of a viral infection model in vivo is carried out. We study the dynamics of a hepatitis C virus (HCV) model, under therapy, that considers both extracellular and intracellular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-13 Alexis Nangue , Alan D. Rendall , Brice Kammegne Tcheugam , Patrick Steve Kamdem Simo

This paper presents a detailed mathematical investigation into the dynamics of COVID-19 infections through extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological models. By…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-21 Caleb Traxler , Minh Ton , Nameer Ahmed , Sasha Prostota , Annie Cheng

COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-23 Madhab Barman , Snigdhashree Nayak , Manoj K. Yadav , Soumyendu Raha , Nachiketa Mishra

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic radically impacts our lives, while the transmission/infection and recovery dynamics of COVID-19 remain obscure. A time-dependent Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-01 Yong Zhang , Xiangnan Yu , HongGuang Sun , Geoffrey R. Tick , Wei Wei , Bin Jin

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in computational models to simulate disease dynamics and guide interventions. Agent-based models (ABMs) are well-suited to capture population and environmental heterogeneity, but their rapid deployment…

The paper studies multi-competitive continuous-time epidemic processes in the presence of a shared resource. We consider the setting where multiple viruses are simultaneously prevalent in the population, and the spread occurs due to not…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-17 Axel Janson , Sebin Gracy , Philip E. Paré , Henrik Sandberg , Karl H. Johansson

The node-place model has been widely used to classify and evaluate transit stations, which sheds light on individual travel behaviors and supports urban planning through effectively integrating land use and transportation development. This…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-21 Jiali Zhou , Mingzhi Zhou , Jiangping Zhou , Zhan Zhao

COVID-19 outbreaks have proven to be very difficult to isolate and extinguish before they spread out. An important reason behind this might be that epidemiological barriers consisting in stopping symptomatic people are likely to fail…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-31 Ezequiel Alvarez , Leandro Da Rold , Federico Lamagna , Manuel Szewc

A nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) based compartmental model of COVID-19 provides a continuous trace of infection over space and time. Finer resolutions in the spatial discretization, the inclusion of additional model…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-08-04 Sudhi P. V. , Victorita Dolean , Pierre Jolivet , Brandon Robinson , Jodi D. Edwards , Tetyana Kendzerska , Abhijit Sarkar
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