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This paper proposes Bayesian Adaptive Trials (BAT) as both an efficient method to conduct trials and a unifying framework for evaluation social policy interventions, addressing limitations inherent in traditional methods such as Randomized…

Accuracy-based evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) measures benchmark-specific performance rather than underlying medical competency: it treats all questions as equally informative, conflates model ability with item characteristics,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Zhimeng Luo , Lixin Wu , Adam Frisch , Daqing He

Typical IRT rating-scale models assume that the rating category threshold parameters are the same over examinees. However, it can be argued that many rating data sets violate this assumption. To address this practical psychometric problem,…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-22 Ken Akira Fujimoto , George Karabatsos

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

The development of chemical reaction models aids understanding and prediction in areas ranging from biology to electrochemistry and combustion. A systematic approach to building reaction network models uses observational data not only to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-01-23 Nikhil Galagali , Youssef M. Marzouk

We describe a Bayesian multidimensional explanatory IRT model, and an associated Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation procedure and the corresponding development of calibration software, designed for psychometric analyses of large…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 Steven W. Nydick , Manqian Liao , J. R. Lockwood

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a tree-based machine learning method that has been successfully applied to regression and classification problems. BART assumes regularisation priors on a set of trees that work as weak learners…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-07 Estevão B. Prado , Rafael A. Moral , Andrew C. Parnell

We study the problem of estimating the continuous response over time to interventions using observational time series---a retrospective dataset where the policy by which the data are generated is unknown to the learner. We are motivated by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-13 Yanbo Xu , Yanxun Xu , Suchi Saria

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

Learning to Rank (LTR) methods are vital in online economies, affecting users and item providers. Fairness in LTR models is crucial to allocate exposure proportionally to item relevance. Widely used deterministic LTR models can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Ruocheng Guo , Jean-François Ton , Yang Liu , Hang Li

Longitudinal item response data are common in social science, educational science, and psychology, among other disciplines. Studying the time-varying relationships between items is crucial for educational assessment or designing marketing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Jaewoo Park , Yeseul Jeon , Minsuk Shin , Minjeong Jeon , Ick Hoon Jin

Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension…

Comprehensive evaluations of language models (LM) during both development and deployment phases are necessary because these models possess numerous capabilities (e.g., mathematical reasoning, legal support, or medical diagnostic) as well as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Sang Truong , Yuheng Tu , Percy Liang , Bo Li , Sanmi Koyejo

We consider the task of discovering gene regulatory networks, which are defined as sets of genes and the corresponding transcription factors which regulate their expression levels. This can be viewed as a variable selection problem,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-04 Justin Bleich , Adam Kapelner , Edward I. George , Shane T. Jensen

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a flexible machine learning algorithm capable of capturing nonlinearities between an outcome and covariates and interaction among covariates. We extend BART to a semiparametric regression…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-13 Bret Zeldow , Vincent Lo Re , Jason Roy

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Elan Rosenfeld , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a fully Bayesian approach to modeling with ensembles of trees. BART can uncover complex regression functions with high dimensional regressors in a fairly automatic way and provide Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-11 Edward George , Prakash Laud , Brent Logan , Robert McCulloch , Rodney Sparapani

Semantics based knowledge representations such as ontologies are found to be very useful in automatically generating meaningful factual questions. Determining the difficulty level of these system generated questions is helpful to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-05 Vinu E. , P Sreenivasa Kumar

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…

Individualized treatment rule (ITR) recommends treatment on the basis of individual patient characteristics and the previous history of applied treatments and their outcomes. Despite the fact there are many ways to estimate ITR with binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-15 Pavel Shvechikov , Evgeniy Riabenko