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The randomization inference literature studying randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assumes that units' potential outcomes are deterministic. This assumption is unlikely to hold, as stochastic shocks may take place during the experiment. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-15 Antoine Deeb , Clément de Chaisemartin

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the effect of new medical treatments. Treatments must pass stringent regulatory conditions in order to be approved for widespread use, yet even after the regulatory…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-13 Omer Noy Klein , Alihan Hüyük , Ron Shamir , Uri Shalit , Mihaela van der Schaar

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Disruptions in clinical trials may be due to external events like pandemics, warfare, and natural disasters. Resulting complications may lead to unforeseen intercurrent events (events that occur after treatment initiation and affect the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-20 Rachael V. Phillips , Mark J. van der Laan

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) often adjust for baseline covariates in order to increase power. This technical note provides a short derivation of a simple rule of thumb for approximating the ratio of the power of an adjusted analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-16 Charles K. Fisher

This paper proposes a new non-parametric bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of average treatment effect estimate for the treated from matching estimators. More specifically, it seeks to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Jing Li

This paper studies inference in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) and imperfect compliance of a binary treatment. In this context, we study inference on the LATE. As in Bugni et al. (2018,2019),…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-25 Federico A. Bugni , Mengsi Gao

A fundamental limitation of causal inference in observational studies is that perceived evidence for an effect might instead be explained by factors not accounted for in the primary analysis. Methods for assessing the sensitivity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-14 Colin B. Fogarty

Causal inference on a population of units connected through a network often presents technical challenges, including how to account for interference. In the presence of local interference, for instance, potential outcomes of a unit depend…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Laura Forastiere , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Fabrizia Mealli

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Yang Ning , Sida Peng , Kosuke Imai

We study variants of the average treatment effect on the treated with population parameters replaced by their sample counterparts. For each estimand, we derive the limiting distribution with respect to a semiparametric efficient estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-12 Andrew Yiu

Propensity score methods have been shown to be powerful in obtaining efficient estimators of average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data, especially under the existence of confounding factors. When estimating, deciding which type…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-14 Kangjie Zhou , Jinzhu Jia

Real-World Data (RWD), with its large sample sizes and rich clinical detail, offers a compelling alternative to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for studying treatment effects in diverse and complex patient populations. However, its…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yifei Xu , Hwiyoung Lee , Zhenyao Ye , Yezhi Pan , Jingsong Zhou , Yun Yang , Chixiang Chen , Shuo Chen

Linear regression is arguably the most fundamental statistical model; however, the validity of its use in randomized clinical trials, despite being common practice, has never been crystal clear, particularly when stratified or…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Wei Ma , Fuyi Tu , Hanzhong Liu

Covariate adjustment is an important tool in the analysis of randomized clinical trials and observational studies. It can be used to increase efficiency and thus power, and to reduce possible bias. While most statistical tests in randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-03 Xiaoru Wu , Zhiliang Ying

This paper studies inference in cluster randomized trials where treatment status is determined according to a "matched pairs" design. Here, by a cluster randomized experiment, we mean one in which treatment is assigned at the level of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-14 Yuehao Bai , Jizhou Liu , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

We study regression discontinuity designs with the use of additional covariates for estimation of the average treatment effect. We provide a detailed proof of asymptotic normality of the covariate-adjusted estimator under minimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Patrick Kramer , Alexander Kreiß

Continuous treatments have posed a significant challenge for causal inference, both in the formulation and identification of scientifically meaningful effects and in their robust estimation. Traditionally, focus has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-29 Nima S. Hejazi , David Benkeser , Iván Díaz , Mark J. van der Laan

When engagement with a randomized trial is driven by factors that affect the outcome or when trial engagement directly affects the outcome independent of treatment, the average treatment effect among trial participants is unlikely to…