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Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-04 Jonathan Fuhr , Dominik Papies

The estimation of causal effects with observational data continues to be a very active research area. In recent years, researchers have developed new frameworks which use machine learning to relax classical assumptions necessary for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Jonathan Fuhr , Philipp Berens , Dominik Papies

This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects that are needed to identify the target…

Confounding bias is a key challenge in causal effect estimation from observational data. Double Machine Learning (DML) addresses this issue by estimating treatment and outcome nuisance functions, constructing treatment and outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Guodu Xiang , Kui Yu , Yujie Wang , Richang Hong , Fuyuan Cao , Jiye Liang

A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key unconfounded…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Daqian Shao , Ashkan Soleymani , Francesco Quinzan , Marta Kwiatkowska

We introduce the package ddml for Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DDML) in Stata. Estimators of causal parameters for five different econometric models are supported, allowing for flexible estimation of causal effects of endogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-09 Achim Ahrens , Christian B. Hansen , Mark E. Schaffer , Thomas Wiemann

This paper proposes a simple, novel, and fully-Bayesian approach for causal inference in partially linear models with high-dimensional control variables. Off-the-shelf machine learning methods can introduce biases in the causal parameter…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-19 Francis J. DiTraglia , Laura Liu

Double (debiased) machine learning (DML) has seen widespread use in recent years for learning causal/structural parameters, in part due to its flexibility and adaptability to high-dimensional nuisance functions as well as its ability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-12 Abhinandan Dalal , Patrick Blöbaum , Shiva Kasiviswanathan , Aaditya Ramdas

Proper hyperparameter tuning is essential for achieving optimal performance of modern machine learning (ML) methods in predictive tasks. While there is an extensive literature on tuning ML learners for prediction, there is only little…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-08 Philipp Bach , Oliver Schacht , Victor Chernozhukov , Sven Klaassen , Martin Spindler

Double machine learning is a statistical method for leveraging complex black-box models to construct approximately unbiased treatment effect estimates given observational data with high-dimensional covariates, under the assumption of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-03 Nitai Fingerhut , Matteo Sesia , Yaniv Romano

Most modern supervised statistical/machine learning (ML) methods are explicitly designed to solve prediction problems very well. Achieving this goal does not imply that these methods automatically deliver good estimators of causal…

Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (LTV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Kexin Zhao , Bo Wang , Cuiying Zhao , Tongyao Wan

Recent advances in causal inference have seen the development of methods which make use of the predictive power of machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we develop novel double machine learning (DML) procedures for panel data in which…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-03 Paul S. Clarke , Annalivia Polselli

This paper investigates double/debiased machine learning (DML) under multiway clustered sampling environments. We propose a novel multiway cross fitting algorithm and a multiway DML estimator based on this algorithm. We also develop a…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-03-05 Harold D. Chiang , Kengo Kato , Yukun Ma , Yuya Sasaki

This paper reviews, applies and extends recently proposed methods based on Double Machine Learning (DML) with a focus on program evaluation under unconfoundedness. DML based methods leverage flexible prediction models to adjust for…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-06 Michael C. Knaus

Latent variable models provide a powerful framework for incorporating and inferring unobserved factors in observational data. In causal inference, they help account for hidden factors influencing treatment or outcome, thereby addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Tetsuro Morimura , Tatsushi Oka , Yugo Suzuki , Daisuke Moriwaki

Counterfactual fairness is an approach to AI fairness that tries to make decisions based on the outcomes that an individual with some kind of sensitive status would have had without this status. This paper proposes Double Machine Learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Patrick Rehill

We consider estimating a low-dimensional parameter in an estimating equation involving high-dimensional nuisances that depend on the parameter. A central example is the efficient estimating equation for the (local) quantile treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-18 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Masatoshi Uehara

Unlike parametric regression, machine learning (ML) methods do not generally require precise knowledge of the true data generating mechanisms. As such, numerous authors have advocated for ML methods to estimate causal effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-15 Ashley I Naimi , Alan E Mishler , Edward H Kennedy

Estimating causal treatment effects in observational settings is frequently compromised by selection bias arising from unobserved confounders. While traditional econometric methods struggle when these confounders are orthogonal to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Ahmed Dawoud , Osama El-Shamy
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