English
Related papers

Related papers: Bayesian sequential composite hypothesis testing i…

200 papers

We present a unified duality approach to Bayesian persuasion. The optimal dual variable, interpreted as a price function on the state space, is shown to be a supergradient of the concave closure of the objective function at the prior…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-06-05 Piotr Dworczak , Anton Kolotilin

This paper provides a statistical method to test whether a system that performs a binary sequential hypothesis test is optimal in the sense of minimizing the average decision times while taking decisions with given reliabilities. The…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-01-08 Meik Dörpinghaus , Izaak Neri , Édgar Roldán , Heinrich Meyr , Frank Jülicher

How do decisions change with the economic environment and with time? This paper studies general nonstationary stopping problems and provides the methodological tools to answer these questions. First, we identify conditions that ensure a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-01 Théo Durandard , Matteo Camboni

Motivated by genetic association studies of pleiotropy, we propose here a Bayesian latent variable approach to jointly study multiple outcomes or phenotypes. The proposed method models both continuous and binary phenotypes, and it accounts…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-08 Lizhen Xu , Radu V. Craiu , Lei Sun

Bayesian optimization (BO) is increasingly employed in critical applications to find the optimal design with minimal cost. While BO is known for its sample efficiency, relying solely on costly high-fidelity data can still result in high…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Zahra Zanjani Foumani , Ramin Bostanabad

In view of the current availability and variety of measured data, there is an increasing demand for powerful signal processing tools that can cope successfully with the associated problems that often arise when data are being analysed. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-12-16 Tomislav Stankovski , Andrea Duggento , Peter V. E. McClintock , Aneta Stefanovska

This paper is devoted to solving a time-inconsistent risk-sensitive control problem with parameter $\e$ and its limit case ($\e\rightarrow0^+$) for countable-stated Markov decision processes (MDPs for short). Since the cost functional is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-22 Hongwei Mei

We want to select the best systems out of a given set of systems (or rank them) with respect to their expected performance. The systems allow random observations only and we assume that the joint observation of the systems has a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-23 Björn Görder , Michael Kolonko

This work focuses on a specific classification problem, where the information about a sample is not readily available, but has to be acquired for a cost, and there is a per-sample budget. Inspired by real-world use-cases, we analyze average…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Jaromír Janisch , Tomáš Pevný , Viliam Lisý

Continuous time Bayesian networks are investigated with a special focus on their ability to express causality. A framework is presented for doing inference in these networks. The central contributions are a representation of the intensity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-26 Jonas Hallgren , Timo Koski

Statistical dependence between hypotheses poses a significant challenge to the stability of large scale multiple hypotheses testing. Ignoring it often results in an unacceptably large spread in the false positive proportion even though the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-15 Sairam Rayaprolu , Zhiyi Chi

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Martin Bladt , Jorge González Cázares

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

Inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used in science and engineering. Although such problems are generally ill-posed, different regularisation approaches have been developed to ameliorate this problem.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-23 Jan Povala , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Eky Febrianto , Fehmi Cirak , Mark Girolami

Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is challenging when the likelihood function is irregular and expensive to compute. We explore several sampling algorithms that make use of subset evaluations to reduce computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-16 Conor Rosato , Harvinder Lehal , Simon Maskell , Lee Devlin , Malcolm Strens

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Greg Barkimer , Kevin Li , Mike West

Testing whether a probability distribution is compatible with a given Bayesian network is a fundamental task in the field of causal inference, where Bayesian networks model causal relations. Here we consider the class of causal structures…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-04 Aditya Kela , Kai von Prillwitz , Johan Aberg , Rafael Chaves , David Gross

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Benjamin Letham , Brian Karrer , Guilherme Ottoni , Eytan Bakshy

Closed-loop performance of sequential decision making algorithms, such as model predictive control, depends strongly on the choice of controller parameters. Bayesian optimization allows learning of parameters from closed-loop experiments,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-18 Sebastian Hirt , Lukas Theiner , Rolf Findeisen