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Related papers: State estimation for aoristic models

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Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-22 Max Cohen , Maurice Charbit , Sylvain Le Corff

We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. Though the described Bayesian computational framework is general, we look at a specific application to the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Brandon Robinson , Philippe Bisaillon , Jodi D. Edwards , Tetyana Kendzerska , Mohammad Khalil , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-05 Tejasv Bedi , Yanxun Xu , Qiwei Li

We analyze the quantum jumps of an atom interacting with a cavity field. The strong atom- field interaction makes the cavity transmission depend on the time dependent atomic state, and we present a Hidden Markov Model description of the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 S. Gammelmark , W. Alt , T. Kampschulte , D. Meschede , K. Molmer

Spatio-temporal hidden Markov models are extremely difficult to estimate because their latent joint distributions are available only in trivial cases. In the estimation phase, these latent distributions are usually substituted with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Daniele Tancini , Riccardo Rastelli , Francesco Bartolucci

In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-10 Vasily Vasilyev , Alexander Dobrovidov

We consider an evolving system for which a sequence of observations is being made, with each observation revealing additional information about current and past states of the system. We suppose each observation is made without error, but…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Valentina Di Marco , Jonathan Keith

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-24 Anurag Ghosh , Soumalya Mukhopadhyay , Sandipan Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We propose a machine learning framework for parameter estimation of single mode Gaussian quantum states. Under a Bayesian framework, our approach estimates parameters of suitable prior distributions from measured data. For phase-space…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-08-16 Neel Kanth Kundu , Matthew R. McKay , Ranjan K. Mallik

Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Chak Fung Choi , Chunxue Li , Chun Yip Yau , Zifeng Zhao

In this paper we address the problem of state observation of linear time-varying systems with delayed measurements, which has attracted the attention of many researchers|see [7] and references therein. We show that, adopting the parameter…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-21 Alexey Bobtsov , Nikolay Nikolaev , Romeo Ortega , Denis Efimov

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin

Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-13 Yong Song , Tomasz Woźniak

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

Non-equilibrium systems have long-ranged spatial correlations even far away from critical points. This implies that the likelihoods of spatial steady state profiles of physical observables are nonlocal functionals. In this letter, it is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Otto Pulkkinen

Learning-based methods commonly treat state estimation in robotics as a sequence modeling problem. While this paradigm can be effective at maximizing end-to-end performance, models are often difficult to interpret and expensive to train,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Lennart Röstel , Berthold Bäuml

This paper develops a Bayesian mechanics for adaptive systems. Firstly, we model the interface between a system and its environment with a Markov blanket. This affords conditions under which states internal to the blanket encode information…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2021-12-22 Lancelot Da Costa , Karl Friston , Conor Heins , Grigorios A. Pavliotis

We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-27 Elisabeth Gassiat , Judith Rousseau

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-19 Ioannis Rotous , Alex Diana , Alessio Farcomeni , Eleni Matechou , Andréa Thiebault