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Most existing multivariate time series forecasting methods adopt an all-to-all paradigm that feeds all variable histories into a unified model to predict their future values without distinguishing their individual roles. However, this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Xingyu Zhang , Hanyun Du , Zeen Song , Siyu Zhao , Changwen Zheng , Wenwen Qiang

Performance predictors have emerged as a promising method to accelerate the evaluation stage of neural architecture search (NAS). These predictors estimate the performance of unseen architectures by learning from the correlation between a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Han Ji , Yuqi Feng , Jiahao Fan , Yanan Sun

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

We consider the problem of learning causal networks with interventions, when each intervention is limited in size under Pearl's Structural Equation Model with independent errors (SEM-IE). The objective is to minimize the number of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-11-03 Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Murat Kocaoglu , Alexandros G. Dimakis , Sriram Vishwanath

The problem of learning forest-structured discrete graphical models from i.i.d. samples is considered. An algorithm based on pruning of the Chow-Liu tree through adaptive thresholding is proposed. It is shown that this algorithm is both…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-02-15 Vincent Y. F. Tan , Animashree Anandkumar , Alan S. Willsky

Discovering causal relationships from observational data, particularly in the presence of latent variables, poses a challenging problem. While current local structure learning methods have proven effective and efficient when the focus lies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Feng Xie , Zheng Li , Peng Wu , Yan Zeng , Chunchen Liu , Zhi Geng

As systems are getting more autonomous with the development of artificial intelligence, it is important to discover the causal knowledge from observational sensory inputs. By encoding a series of cause-effect relations between events,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Yuhao Wang , Vlado Menkovski , Hao Wang , Xin Du , Mykola Pechenizkiy

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Jiji Zhang , Joseph Ramsey , Ruben Sanchez-Romero , Clark Glymour , Bernhard Schölkopf

Artificial Intelligence has achieved remarkable advancements in recent years, yet much of its progress relies on identifying increasingly complex correlations. Enabling causality awareness in AI has the potential to enhance its performance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Matteo Gregorini , Chiara Boldrini , Lorenzo Valerio

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Quentin Duchemin , Guillaume Obozinski

Recovering causal structure in the presence of latent variables is an important but challenging task. While many methods have been proposed to handle it, most of them require strict and/or untestable assumptions on the causal structure. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Wei Chen , Linjun Peng , Zhiyi Huang , Haoyue Dai , Zhifeng Hao , Ruichu Cai , Kun Zhang

Determining the causal structure of a set of variables is critical for both scientific inquiry and decision-making. However, this is often challenging in practice due to limited interventional data. Given that randomized experiments are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-28 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Karren Yang , Karthik Shanmugam , Caroline Uhler

Structural Causal Models (SCMs) offer a principled framework to reason about interventions and support out-of-distribution generalization, which are key goals in scientific discovery. However, the task of learning SCMs from observed data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Divyat Mahajan , Jannes Gladrow , Agrin Hilmkil , Cheng Zhang , Meyer Scetbon

We introduce Afferent Learning, a framework that produces Computational Afferent Traces (CATs) as adaptive, internal risk signals for damage-avoidance learning. Inspired by biological systems, the framework uses a two-level architecture:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Wolfgang Maass , Sabine Janzen , Prajvi Saxena , Sach Mukherjee

We argue that the selective inclusion of data points based on latent objectives is common in practical situations, such as music sequences. Since this selection process often distorts statistical analysis, previous work primarily views it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Yujia Zheng , Zeyu Tang , Yiwen Qiu , Bernhard Schölkopf , Kun Zhang

Recent years have seen rapid progress at the intersection between causality and machine learning. Motivated by scientific applications involving high-dimensional data, in particular in biomedicine, we propose a deep neural architecture for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Kai Lagemann , Christian Lagemann , Bernd Taschler , Sach Mukherjee

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-20 Jenny Häggström

We present a very general approach to learning the structure of causal models based on d-separation constraints, obtained from any given set of overlapping passive observational or experimental data sets. The procedure allows for both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Antti Hyttinen , Patrik O. Hoyer , Frederick Eberhardt , Matti Jarvisalo

This paper shows that decision trees constructed with Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and C4.5 methodology are consistent for regression and classification tasks, even when the number of predictor variables grows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-15 Jason M. Klusowski , Peter M. Tian

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik