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Understanding directed temporal interactions in multivariate time series is essential for interpreting complex dynamical systems and the predictive models trained on them. We present Causal-INSIGHT, a model-agnostic, post-hoc interpretation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Benjamin Redden , Hui Wang , Shuyan Li

Learning the dynamic causal structure of time series is a challenging problem. Most existing approaches rely on distributional or structural invariance to uncover underlying causal dynamics, assuming stationary or partially stationary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Dezhi Yang , Qiaoyu Tan , Carlotta Domeniconi , Jun Wang , Lizhen Cui , Guoxian Yu

We study causal discovery from observational data in linear Gaussian systems affected by \emph{mixed latent confounding}, where some unobserved factors act broadly across many variables while others influence only small subsets. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Amir Asiaee , Samhita Pal , James O'quinn , James P. Long

With observational data alone, causal structure learning is a challenging problem. The task becomes easier when having access to data collected from perturbations of the underlying system, even when the nature of these is unknown. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-10 Armeen Taeb , Juan L. Gamella , Christina Heinze-Deml , Peter Bühlmann

Evaluating graphs learned by causal discovery algorithms is difficult: The number of edges that differ between two graphs does not reflect how the graphs differ with respect to the identifying formulas they suggest for causal effects. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-12 Leonard Henckel , Theo Würtzen , Sebastian Weichwald

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

Causal Bayesian networks have become a powerful technology for reasoning under uncertainty in areas that require transparency and explainability, by relying on causal assumptions that enable us to simulate hypothetical interventions. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Anthony C. Constantinou , Zhigao Guo , Neville K. Kitson

In this paper we present a comprehensive view of prominent causal discovery algorithms, categorized into two main categories (1) assuming acyclic and no latent variables, and (2) allowing both cycles and latent variables, along with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-13 Karamjit Singh , Garima Gupta , Vartika Tewari , Gautam Shroff

Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-22 Daniel Chicharro , Stefano Panzeri , Ilya Shpitser

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

We present two online causal structure learning algorithms which can track changes in a causal structure and process data in a dynamic real-time manner. Standard causal structure learning algorithms assume that causal structure does not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Durdane Kocacoban , James Cussens

Learning the structure of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is useful in many areas of machine learning and artificial intelligence, with wide applications. However, in the high-dimensional setting, it is challenging to obtain good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Stephen Smith , Qing Zhou

We present convincing empirical evidence for an effective and general strategy for building accurate small models. Such models are attractive for interpretability and also find use in resource-constrained environments. The strategy is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Abhishek Ghose

In this paper, we develop a generic methodology to encode hierarchical causality structure among observed variables into a neural network in order to improve its predictive performance. The proposed methodology, called causality-informed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Xiaoge Zhang , Xiao-Lin Wang , Fenglei Fan , Yiu-Ming Cheung , Indranil Bose

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Under stringent model type and variable distribution assumptions, differentiable score-based causal discovery methods learn a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data by evaluating candidate graphs over an average score…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 An Zhang , Fangfu Liu , Wenchang Ma , Zhibo Cai , Xiang Wang , Tat-seng Chua

To make accurate predictions, understand mechanisms, and design interventions in systems of many variables, we wish to learn causal graphs from large scale data. Unfortunately the space of all possible causal graphs is enormous so scalably…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-19 Alan Nawzad Amin , Andrew Gordon Wilson

There are several existing algorithms that under appropriate assumptions can reliably identify a subset of the underlying causal relationships from observational data. This paper introduces the first computationally feasible score-based…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Subramani Mani , Peter L. Spirtes , Gregory F. Cooper

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is a central challenge in industrial monitoring, as failures frequently arise from complex temporal dynamics and cross-sensor interactions. While recent deep learning models, including graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Pooyan Khosravinia , João Gama , Bruno Veloso
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