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For exponentially distributed lifetimes, we consider the prediction of future order statistics based on having observed the first $m$ order statistics. We focus on the previously less explored aspects of predicting: (i) an arbitrary pair of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Akbar Asgharzadeh , Éric Marchand , Ali Saadati Nik

In community detection, the exact recovery of communities (clusters) has been mainly investigated under the general stochastic block model with edges drawn from Bernoulli distributions. This paper considers the exact recovery of communities…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Mohammad Esmaeili , Aria Nosratinia

Recently network analysis has gained more and more attentions in statistics, as well as in computer science, probability, and applied mathematics. Community detection for the stochastic block model (SBM) is probably the most studied topic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-17 Anderson Y. Zhang , Harrison H. Zhou

Confidence sequences are collections of confidence regions that simultaneously cover the true parameter for every sample size at a prescribed confidence level. Tightening these sequences is of practical interest and can be achieved by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Stefano Cortinovis , Valentin Kilian , François Caron

We establish a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for approximately linear semiparametric functionals of fractional posterior distributions based on nonparametric priors. This is illustrated in a number of nonparametric settings and for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Alice L'Huillier , Luke Travis , Ismaël Castillo , Kolyan Ray

We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Jeong Eun Lee , Geoff K. Nicholls , Robin J. Ryder

A relevant, sometimes overlooked, quality criterion for communities in graphs is that they should be well-connected in addition to being edge-dense. Prior work has shown that leading community detection methods can produce poorly-connected…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-08-07 The-Anh Vu-Le , Minhyuk Park , Ian Chen , George Chacko , Tandy Warnow

Exact recovery in stochastic block models (SBMs) is well understood in undirected settings, but remains considerably less developed for directed and sparse networks, particularly when the number of communities diverges. Spectral methods for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Behzad Aalipur , Yichen Qin

The stochastic block model is widely used to generate graphs with a community structure, but no simple alternative currently exists for hypergraphs, in which more than two nodes can be connected together through a hyperedge. We discuss here…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-15 Alexis Pister , Marc Barthelemy

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

In most prediction and estimation situations, scientists consider various statistical models for the same problem, and naturally want to select amongst the best. Hansen et al. (2011) provide a powerful solution to this problem by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Sebastian Arnold , Georgios Gavrilopoulos , Benedikt Schulz , Johanna Ziegel

We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in clustering that combines martingale posterior distributions with density-based clustering. Unlike classical model-based approaches, which define clusters at the latent level…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-20 Nicola Bariletto , Stephen G. Walker

We consider the sparse stochastic block model in the case where the degrees are uninformative. The case where the two communities have approximately the same size has been extensively studied and we concentrate here on the community…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-04 Francesco Caltagirone , Marc Lelarge , Léo Miolane

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Gero Walter , Frank P. A. Coolen

Identifying edge-dense communities that are also well-connected is an important aspect of understanding community structure. Prior work has shown that community detection methods can produce poorly connected communities, and some can even…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Minhyuk Park , Daniel Wang Feng , Siya Digra , The-Anh Vu-Le , Lahari Anne , George Chacko , Tandy Warnow

Neighborhood selection is a widely used method used for estimating the support set of sparse precision matrices, which helps determine the conditional dependence structure in undirected graphical models. However, reporting only point…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-29 Yiling Huang , Snigdha Panigrahi , Walter Dempsey

Random graph models with community structure have been studied extensively in the literature. For both the problems of detecting and recovering community structure, an interesting landscape of statistical and computational phase transitions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Cynthia Rush , Fiona Skerman , Alexander S. Wein , Dana Yang

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

The binary symmetric stochastic block model deals with a random graph of $n$ vertices partitioned into two equal-sized clusters, such that each pair of vertices is connected independently with probability $p$ within clusters and $q$ across…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-07 Bruce Hajek , Yihong Wu , Jiaming Xu

We propose a robust, scalable, integrated methodology for community detection and community comparison in graphs. In our procedure, we first embed a graph into an appropriate Euclidean space to obtain a low-dimensional representation, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-29 Vince Lyzinski , Minh Tang , Avanti Athreya , Youngser Park , Carey E. Priebe