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Bayesian change-point and segmentation models provide uncertainty-aware piecewise-constant representations of ordered data, but exact inference is often limited to narrow likelihood classes, single sequences, or index-uniform designs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Omid Shams Solari

In clinical trials, ensuring the quality and validity of data for downstream analysis and results is paramount, thus necessitating thorough data monitoring. This typically involves employing edit checks and manual queries during data…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-01-15 Yuxi Zhao , Margaret Gamalo

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

We address the new problem of estimating a piece-wise constant signal with the purpose of detecting its change points and the levels of clusters. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-04 Othmane Mazhar , Cristian R. Rojas , Carlo Fischione , Mohammad R. Hesamzadeh

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott N. Walsh , Tim M. Wildey , John D. Jakeman

We propose a sequential design method aiming at the estimation of an extreme quantile based on a sample of dichotomic data corresponding to peaks over a given threshold. This study is motivated by an industrial challenge in material…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-06 Michel Broniatowski , Emilie Miranda

We present a Bayesian procedure for estimation of pairwise intervention effects in a high-dimensional system of categorical variables. We assume that we have observational data generated from an unknown causal Bayesian network for which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-02 Vera Kvisgaard , Johan Pensar

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an efficient and flexible global optimization framework that is applicable to a very wide range of engineering applications. To leverage the capability of the classical BO, many extensions, including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-01 Anh Tran , Mike Eldred , Scott McCann , Yan Wang

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

We consider adaptive designs for a trial involving N individuals that we follow along T time steps. We allow for the variables of one individual to depend on its past and on the past of other individuals. Our goal is to learn a mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-20 Aurelien Bibaut , Maya Petersen , Nikos Vlassis , Maria Dimakopoulou , Mark van der Laan

We consider the sequential experimental design problem in the predict-then-optimize paradigm. In this paradigm, the outputs of the prediction model are used as coefficient vectors in a downstream linear optimization problem. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Beichen Wan , Mo Liu , Paul Grigas , Zuo-Jun Max Shen

Group sequential designs (GSDs) are well established and the most commonly used adaptive design in confirmatory clinical trials with interim analyses. However, they remain underutilised, and their implementation involves unique theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Zhangyi He , Suzie Cro , Laurent Billot

The Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA) is a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) method to determine the relative importance (weights) of experts, attributes, and alternatives. This study formally establishes the fundamental properties of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-25 Renlong Wang

We present GO-CBED, a goal-oriented Bayesian framework for sequential causal experimental design. Unlike conventional approaches that select interventions aimed at inferring the full causal model, GO-CBED directly maximizes the expected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Zheyu Zhang , Jiayuan Dong , Jie Liu , Xun Huan

Human microbiome studies use sequencing technologies to measure the abundance of bacterial species or Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) in samples of biological material. Typically the data are organized in contingency tables with OTU…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-27 Boyu Ren , Sergio Bacallado , Stefano Favaro , Susan Holmes , Lorenzo Trippa

Cluster randomization trials commonly employ multiple endpoints. When a single summary of treatment effects across endpoints is of primary interest, global hypothesis testing/effect estimation methods represent a common analysis strategy.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 E. Davies Smith , V. Jairath , G. Zou

In this paper, we introduce a \textit{Bi-level OPTimization} (BiOPT) framework for minimizing the sum of two convex functions, where both can be nonsmooth. The BiOPT framework involves two levels of methodologies. At the upper level of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-14 Masoud Ahookhosh , Yurii Nesterov

Since the pioneering work by Koenker and Bassett (1978), quantile regression models and its applications have become increasingly popular and important for research in many areas. In this paper, a random effects ordinal quantile regression…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-02 Rahim Alhamzawi

We present a review of methods for optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations with infinite-dimensional parameters. The focus is on problems where one seeks to optimize the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-01 Alen Alexanderian

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-24 Jinhong Wang , Yi Cheng , Jintai Chen , Tingting Chen , Danny Chen , Jian Wu