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Related papers: Evidence Aggregation for Treatment Choice

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This paper investigates regret minimization, statistical inference, and their interplay in high-dimensional online decision-making based on the sparse linear context bandit model. We integrate the $\varepsilon$-greedy bandit algorithm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Congyuan Duan , Wanteng Ma , Jiashuo Jiang , Dong Xia

This paper studies the problem of optimally allocating treatments in the presence of spillover effects, using information from a (quasi-)experiment. I introduce a method that maximizes the sample analog of average social welfare when…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-09 Davide Viviano

One of the most important aspects in any treatment of uncertain information is the rule of combination for updating the degrees of uncertainty. The theory of belief functions uses the Dempster rule to combine two belief functions defined by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Michael S. K. M. Wong , P. Lingras

We consider the problem of repeatedly choosing policies to maximize social welfare. Welfare is a weighted sum of private utility and public revenue. Earlier outcomes inform later policies. Utility is not observed, but indirectly inferred.…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-30 Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi , Roberto Colomboni , Maximilian Kasy

Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-13 Itai Areili , Yakov Babichenko , Rann Smorodinsky

Let $\cF$ be a set of $M$ classification procedures with values in $[-1,1]$. Given a loss function, we want to construct a procedure which mimics at the best possible rate the best procedure in $\cF$. This fastest rate is called optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Guillaume Lecué

Quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity is a crucial task in many areas of causal inference, e.g. optimal treatment allocation and estimation of subgroup effects. We study the problem of estimating the level sets of the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-03 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke J. Keele

This study investigates the contextual best arm identification (BAI) problem, aiming to design an adaptive experiment to identify the best treatment arm conditioned on contextual information (covariates). We consider a decision-maker who…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Masahiro Kato , Kyohei Okumura , Takuya Ishihara , Toru Kitagawa

Robust forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple information sources to perform well in the worst case across all possible information structures. Previous work largely focuses on settings with a known binary state space,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Zhi Chen , Cheng Peng , Wei Tang

In consequential domains, it is often impossible to compel individuals to take treatment, so that optimal policy rules are merely suggestions in the presence of human non-adherence to treatment recommendations. We study personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Angela Zhou

We present a study on a repeated delegated choice problem, which is the first to consider an online learning variant of Kleinberg and Kleinberg, EC'18. In this model, a principal interacts repeatedly with an agent who possesses an exogenous…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-15 MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Mohammad Mahdavi , Keivan Rezaei , Suho Shin

We study the problem of online learning with a notion of regret defined with respect to a set of strategies. We develop tools for analyzing the minimax rates and for deriving regret-minimization algorithms in this scenario. While the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-13 Wei Han , Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

With medical tests becoming increasingly available, concerns about over-testing and over-treatment dramatically increase. Hence, it is important to understand the influence of testing on treatment selection in general practice. Most…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Yun Li , Irina Bondarenko , Michael R. Elliott , Timothy P. Hofer , Jeremy M. G. Taylor

In this paper, we explore optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare. Most literature on treatment choice has considered utilitarian welfare based on the conditional average treatment effect (ATE). While…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-30 Yifan Cui , Sukjin Han

We introduce a novel extension of the canonical multi-armed bandit problem that incorporates an additional strategic innovation: abstention. In this enhanced framework, the agent is not only tasked with selecting an arm at each time step,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Junwen Yang , Tianyuan Jin , Vincent Y. F. Tan

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

This paper studies sample-size design for finite-population test-and-roll experiments, where a decision-maker first conducts an experiment on $m$ units and then assigns the remaining $N-m$ units to the treatment that performs better in the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-05 Kentaro Kawato , Shosei Sakaguchi

We study online learning settings in which experts act strategically to maximize their influence on the learning algorithm's predictions by potentially misreporting their beliefs about a sequence of binary events. Our goal is twofold.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Rupert Freeman , David M. Pennock , Chara Podimata , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan

We study non-rectangular robust Markov decision processes under the average-reward criterion, where the ambiguity set couples transition probabilities across states and the adversary commits to a stationary kernel for the entire horizon. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Shengbo Wang , Nian Si

A recent goal in the Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework is to choose a sequence of actions or a policy to maximize the reward collected or minimize the regret incurred in a finite time horizon. For several RL problems in operation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-08-18 K J Prabuchandran , Tejas Bodas , Theja Tulabandhula