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A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if the joint distribution of the sequence is unchanged by any permutation of the indices. De Finetti's theorem characterizes all $\{0,1\}$-valued exchangeable sequences as a "mixture" of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-05 Werner Kirsch

De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

The extended de Finetti theorem characterizes exchangeable infinite random sequences as conditionally i.i.d. and shows that the apparently weaker distributional symmetry of spreadability is equivalent to exchangeability. Our main result is…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2008-06-24 Claus Köstler

A finite form of de Finetti's representation theorem is established using elementary information-theoretic tools: The distribution of the first $k$ random variables in an exchangeable binary vector of length $n\geq k$ is close to a mixture…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Lampros Gavalakis , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Motivated by recent interests in predictive inference under distribution shift, we study the problem of approximating finite weighted exchangeable sequences by a mixture of finite sequences with independent terms. Various bounds are derived…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Wenpin Tang

The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-16 Peter Orbanz , Daniel M. Roy

We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-28 Lampros Gavalakis , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

We extend de Finetti's (1937) notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than (linear) previsions. We prove…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-01-09 Gert de Cooman , Erik Quaeghebeur , Enrique Miranda

A new finite form of de Finetti's representation theorem is established using elementary information-theoretic tools. The distribution of the first $k$ random variables in an exchangeable vector of $n\geq k$ random variables is close to a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Mario Berta , Lampros Gavalakis , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

We give a nonstandard analytic proof of de Finetti's theorem for an exchangeable sequence of Bernoulli random variables. The theorem postulates that such a sequence is uniquely representable as a mixture of iid sequences of Bernoulli random…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Irfan Alam

In 1931 de Finetti proved what is known as his Dutch Book Theorem. This result implies that the finite additivity {\it axiom} for the probability of the disjunction of two incompatible events becomes a {\it consequence} of de Finetti's…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Daniele Mundici

Mixtures of product distributions are a powerful device for learning about heterogeneity within data populations. In this class of latent structure models, de Finetti's mixing measure plays the central role for describing the uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-27 Yun Wei , XuanLong Nguyen

A sequence of random variables is called \textit{exchangeable} if its joint distribution is invariant under permutations of indices. The original formulation of de Finetti's theorem roughly says that any exchangeable sequence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-21 Irfan Alam

We consider a notion of uniform thinning for a finite sequence of random variables $(X_1,...,X_n)$ obtained by removing one random variable, uniformly at random. If a triangular array of random variables $(X_{n,k} : n \in \mathbb{N}_+, 1…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Shannon Starr

We study sequences of noncommutative random variables which are invariant under "quantum transformations" coming from an orthogonal quantum group satisfying the "easiness" condition axiomatized in our previous paper. For 10 easy quantum…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2012-09-28 Teodor Banica , Stephen Curran , Roland Speicher

We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-08 Gert de Cooman , Erik Quaeghebeur , Enrique Miranda

We introduce a general framework for de Finetti reduction results, applicable to various notions of partially exchangeable probability distributions. Explicit statements are derived for the cases of exchangeability, Markov exchangeability,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-17 Ivan Bardet , Cécilia Lancien , Ion Nechita

We present a novel proof of de Finetti's Theorem characterizing permutation-invariant probability measures of infinite sequences of variables, so-called exchangeable measures. The proof is phrased in the language of Markov categories, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-08 Tobias Fritz , Tomáš Gonda , Paolo Perrone

For a class of random partitions of an infinite set a de Finetti-type representation is derived, and in one special case a central limit theorem for the number of blocks is shown.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Alexander Gnedin

We prove various finite de Finetti theorems for non-commutative distributions which are invariant under the free easy quantum group actions. This complements the free de Finetti theorems by Banica, Curran and Speicher, which mostly focus on…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Jianquan Wang
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