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Spontaneous structural rearrangements play a central role in the organization and function of complex biomolecular systems. In principle, physics-based computer simulations like Molecular Dynamics (MD) enable us to investigate these…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-19 Danial Ghamari , Philipp Hauke , Roberto Covino , Pietro Faccioli

Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte

Active matter systems exhibit rich emergent behavior due to constant injection and dissipation of energy at the level of individual agents. Since these systems are far from equilibrium, their dynamics and energetics cannot be understood…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2020-04-23 Sarah Eldeen , Ryan Muoio , Paris Blaisdell-Pijuan , Ngoc La , Mauricio Gomez , Alex Vidal , Wylie Ahmed

Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-16 Yuanqi Du , Jiajun He , Dinghuai Zhang , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Carles Domingo-Enrich

Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Max Ehre , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Christoffer R. Heckman , Ira B. Schwartz

Many collective systems exist in nature far from equilibrium, ranging from cellular sheets up to flocks of birds. These systems reflect a form of active matter, whereby individual material components have internal energy. Under specific…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-04-17 Namid R. Stillman , Silke Henkes , Roberto Mayor , Gilles Louppe

The fluctuations of turbulence intensity in a pipe flow around the critical Reynolds number is difficult to study but important because they are related to turbulent-laminar transitions. We here propose a rare-event sampling method to study…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-02-08 Takahiro Nemoto , Alexandros Alexakis

The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2016-02-03 Benjamin Trendelkamp-Schroer , Frank Noe

Molecular motors and other complex nonequilibrium systems are controlled by large sets of design parameters, and optimizing those parameters requires computing sensitivities -- derivatives of dynamical observables with respect to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-12 John Strahan , Todd R. Gingrich

A numerical simulation method, based on Dang et al.'s self-consistent theory of large-amplitude collective motion, for rare transition events is presented. The method provides a one-dimensional pathway without knowledge of the final…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-05-20 Kyosuke Tsumura , Yoshitaka Maeda , Hiroyuki Watanabe

We present a method to sample reactive pathways via biased molecular dynamics simulations in trajectory space. We show that the use of enhanced sampling techniques enables unconstrained exploration of multiple reaction routes. Time…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Davide Mandelli , Barak Hirshberg , Michele Parrinello

Rare nonadiabatic reactions are a key component of many important molecular processes but are challenging to capture with direct dynamical simulations. In this paper, we combine our recently developed mapping approach to surface hopping…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-03-19 Danial Ghamari , Jeremy O. Richardson

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-16 Lachlan Gibson , Marcus Hoerger , Dirk Kroese

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Carsten Hartmann , Annika Jöster , Christof Schütte , Alexander Sikorski , Marcus Weber

Active constituents burn fuel to sustain individual motion, giving rise to collective effects that are not seen in systems at thermal equilibrium, such as phase separation with purely repulsive interactions. There is a great potential in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-16 Luke K. Davis , Karel Proesmans , Étienne Fodor

The study of systems with sustained energy uptake and dissipation at the scale of the constituent particles is an area of central interest in nonequilibrium statistical physics. Identifying such systems as a distinct category -- Active…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-06-07 Sriram Ramaswamy

The activated rate process for non-equilibrium open systems is studied taking into account both internal and external noise fluctuations in a unified way. The probability of a particle diffusing passing over the saddle point and the rate…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Chun-Yang Wang

We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 Nicholas Guttenberg , Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan Weare

The paper presents a new efficient and robust method for rare event probability estimation for computational models of an engineering product or a process returning categorical information only, for example, either success or failure. For…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Miroslav Vořechovský