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The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

The execution time of programs is a key element in many areas of computer science, mainly those where achieving good performance (e.g., scheduling in cloud computing) or a predictable one (e.g., meeting deadlines in embedded systems) is the…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2020-07-13 Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) algorithms are widely used in a variety of estimation and prediction tasks in signal-processing and machine learning applications. Despite their popularity, a theory that explains their statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Hossein Taheri , Ramtin Pedarsani , Christos Thrampoulidis

Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-30 Faicel Chamroukhi , Allou Samé , Gérard Govaert , Patrice Aknin

Machine teaching is an algorithmic framework for teaching a target hypothesis via a sequence of examples or demonstrations. We investigate machine teaching for temporal logic formulas -- a novel and expressive hypothesis class amenable to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Zhe Xu , Yuxin Chen , Ufuk Topcu

In order to circumvent statistical and computational hardness results in sequential decision-making, recent work has considered smoothed online learning, where the distribution of data at each time is assumed to have bounded likeliehood…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-26 Adam Block , Alexander Rakhlin , Abhishek Shetty

We consider statistical learning question for $\psi$-weakly dependent processes, that unifies a large class of weak dependence conditions such as mixing, association,$\cdots$ The consistency of the empirical risk minimization algorithm is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-04 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

This work contributes to the development of neural forecasting models with novel randomization-based learning methods. These methods improve the fitting abilities of the neural model, in comparison to the standard method, by generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Grzegorz Dudek

In this paper it is reconsidered the prediction problem in time series framework by using a new non-parametric approach. Through this reconsideration, the prediction is obtained by a weighted sum of past observed data. These weights are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-27 Pedro Cadahía , Jose Manuel Bravo Caro

Probabilistic forecasting relies on past observations to provide a probability distribution for a future outcome, which is often evaluated against the realization using a scoring rule. Here, we perform probabilistic forecasting with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-06 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Rilwan Adewoyin , Peter Dueben , Ritabrata Dutta

This paper considers an opportunistic scheduling problem over a renewal system. A controller observes a random event at the beginning of each renewal frame and then chooses an action in response to the event, which affects the duration of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Xiaohan Wei , Michael J. Neely

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

In stochastic optimization, the population risk is generally approximated by the empirical risk. However, in the large-scale setting, minimization of the empirical risk may be computationally restrictive. In this paper, we design an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-22 Murat A. Erdogdu , Mohsen Bayati , Lee H. Dicker

We consider the setting of iterative learning control, or model-based policy learning in the presence of uncertain, time-varying dynamics. In this setting, we propose a new performance metric, planning regret, which replaces the standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Naman Agarwal , Elad Hazan , Anirudha Majumdar , Karan Singh

This paper studies performative risk minimization, a formulation of stochastic optimization under decision-dependent distributions. We consider the general case where the performative risk can be non-convex, for which we develop efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Sungwoo Park , Junyeop Kwon , Byeongnoh Kim , Suhyun Chae , Jeeyong Lee , Dabeen Lee

In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-11-24 Yin-Lam Chow , Marco Pavone

We study conditional risk minimization (CRM), i.e. the problem of learning a hypothesis of minimal risk for prediction at the next step of sequentially arriving dependent data. Despite it being a fundamental problem, successful learning in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-06 Alexander Zimin , Christoph Lampert

Time series prediction is often complicated by distribution shift which demands adaptive models to accommodate time-varying distributions. We frame time series prediction under distribution shift as a weighted empirical risk minimisation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Stefanos Bennett , Jase Clarkson

A key trait of stochastic optimizers is that multiple runs of the same optimizer in attempting to solve the same problem can produce different results. As a result, their performance is evaluated over several repeats, or runs, on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Moslem Noori , Elisabetta Valiante , Thomas Van Vaerenbergh , Masoud Mohseni , Ignacio Rozada

In algorithmic markets, predictive models become part of the data-generating process they aim to forecast. Once their outputs are converted into trades, allocations, execution schedules, or risk controls, they change the future data on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Marc Schmitt