Related papers: Risk Concentration and the Mean-Expected Shortfall…

The geology of oil reservoirs is largely unknown. Consequently, the reservoir models used for production optimization are subject to significant uncertainty. To minimize the associated risk, the oil literature has mainly used ensemble-based…

Generally, in the financial literature, the notion of quadratic VaR is implicitly confused with the Delta-Gamma VaR, because more authors dealt with portfolios that contains derivatives instruments. In this paper, we postpone to estimate…

Prior work on safe Reinforcement Learning (RL) has studied risk-aversion to randomness in dynamics (aleatory) and to model uncertainty (epistemic) in isolation. We propose and analyze a new framework to jointly model the risk associated…

In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…

In real-world scenarios, risk-averse learning is valuable for mitigating potential adverse outcomes. However, the delayed feedback makes it challenging to assess and manage risk effectively. In this paper, we investigate risk-averse…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk metric in applications such as finance. We derive concentration bounds for CVaR estimates, considering separately the cases of light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. In the…

I propose a functional on the space of spectral risk measures that quantifies their ``degree of risk aversion''. This quantification formalizes the idea that some risk measures are ``more risk-averse'' than others. I construct the…

We study a continuous-time portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the difference between the CVaR and the expected terminal wealth. While the mean-CVaR…

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of…

Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) capital charges for the trading book are based on the coherent expected shortfall (ES) risk measure, which show greater sensitivity to tail risk. In this paper it is argued that…

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…

Online portfolio selection research has so far focused mainly on minimizing regret defined in terms of wealth growth. Practical financial decision making, however, is deeply concerned with both wealth and risk. We consider online learning…

We introduce a new approach for prudent risk evaluation based on stochastic dominance, which will be called the model aggregation (MA) approach. In contrast to the classic worst-case risk (WR) approach, the MA approach produces not only a…

This paper addresses the estimation of the systemic risk measure known as CoVaR, which quantifies the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another portfolio being at risk. We identify two principal challenges: conditioning on a…

The two popular systemic risk measures CoVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) and CoES (Conditional Expected Shortfall) have recently been receiving growing attention on applications in economics and finance. In this paper, we study the…

In risk-averse reinforcement learning (RL), the goal is to optimize some risk measure of the returns. A risk measure often focuses on the worst returns out of the agent's experience. As a result, standard methods for risk-averse RL often…

In general, underestimation of risk is something which should be avoided as far as possible. Especially in financial asset management, equity risk is typically characterized by the measure of portfolio variance, or indirectly by quantities…

Expected Shortfall (ES) is a coherent measure of tail risk that captures the average loss beyond a quantile threshold. Despite the growing literature on ES regression conditional on covariates, no existing work considers ES modeling in…

Value at risk and expected shortfall are increasingly popular tail risk measures in the financial risk management field. Both academia and financial institutions are working to improve tail risk forecasts in order to meet the requirements…

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…