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Defining a causal estimand for a longitudinal outcome truncated by death is challenging, because the outcome may be undefined at the end of follow-up. Although a range of estimands and several estimators have been proposed, guidance on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Juliette Ortholand , Young Lee , Marie-Abele C Bind

In this paper, we consider a surrogate modeling approach using a data-driven nonparametric likelihood function constructed on a manifold on which the data lie (or to which they are close). The proposed method represents the likelihood…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-04 Shixiao W. Jiang , John Harlim

Using a sensitive statistical test we determine whether or not one can detect the breakdown of linear response given observations of deterministic dynamical systems. A goodness-of-fit statistics is developed for a linear statistical model…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2021-09-10 Georg A. Gottwald , Caroline L. Wormell , Jeroen Wouters

Missing data is pervasive in econometric applications, and rarely is it plausible that the data are missing (completely) at random. This paper proposes a methodology for studying the robustness of results drawn from incomplete datasets.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Daniel Ober-Reynolds

We show a statistical version of Taylor's theorem and apply this result to non-parametric density estimation from truncated samples, which is a classical challenge in Statistics \cite{woodroofe1985estimating, stute1993almost}. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Constantinos Daskalakis , Vasilis Kontonis , Christos Tzamos , Manolis Zampetakis

Estimation of the complete distribution of a random variable is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d. setting, but the arbitrary data dependent setting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-01 Paul Mineiro , Steven R. Howard

In this paper we consider the stacking of isotonic regression and the method of rearrangement with the empirical estimator to estimate a discrete distribution with an infinite support. The estimators are proved to be strongly consistent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-23 Vladimir Pastukhov

To take sample biases and skewness in the observations into account, practitioners frequently weight their observations according to some marginal distribution. The present paper demonstrates that such weighting can indeed improve the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-05 Tobias Niebuhr , Mathias Trabs

Given additional distributional information in the form of moment restrictions, kernel density and distribution function estimators with implied generalised empirical likelihood probabilities as weights achieve a reduction in variance due…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Vitaliy Oryshchenko , Richard J. Smith

Low-rank tensor models are widely used in statistics. However, most existing methods rely heavily on the assumption that data follows a sub-Gaussian distribution. To address the challenges associated with heavy-tailed distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Xiaoyu Zhang , Di Wang , Guodong Li , Defeng Sun

Simulation-based inference methods that feature correct conditional coverage of confidence sets based on observations that have been compressed to a scalar test statistic require accurate modeling of either the p-value function or the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Ali Al Kadhim , Harrison B. Prosper

We establish new results for estimation and inference in financial durations models, where events are observed over a given time span, such as a trading day, or a week. For the classical autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-02 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Thomas Mikosch , Anders Rahbek , Frederik Vilandt

Stochastic compartmental models are prevalent tools for describing disease spread, but inference under these models is challenging for many types of surveillance data when the marginal likelihood function becomes intractable due to missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Suchismita Roy , Alexander A. Fisher , Jason Xu

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

One goal in survival analysis of right-censored data is to estimate the marginal survival function in the presence of dependent censoring. When many auxiliary covariates are sufficient to explain the dependent censoring, estimation based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donglin Zeng

In this article, the analysis of left truncated and right censored competing risks data is carried out, under the assumption of the latent failure times model. It is assumed that there are two competing causes of failures, although most of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-19 Debasis Kundu , Debanjan Mitra , Ayon Ganguly

We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-02 Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Pasquale Cirillo

The distributed hypothesis testing problem with full side-information is studied. The trade-off (reliability function) between the two types of error exponents under limited rate is studied in the following way. First, the problem is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-04-24 Nir Weinberger , Yuval Kochman

The nonparametric estimators built by minimizing the mean squared relative error are gaining in popularity for their robustness in the presence of outliers in comparison to the Nadaraya Watson estimators. In this paper we build a relative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Adel Boucetta , Zohra Guessoum , Elias Ould-Said

A truncated sequential procedure is constructed for estimating the drift coefficient at a given state point based on discrete data of ergodic diffusion process. A nonasymptotic upper bound is obtained for a pointwise absolute error risk.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-21 L. I. Galtchouk , S. M. Pergamenshchikov
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