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We propose a method to distinguish causal influence from hidden confounding in the following scenario: given a target variable Y, potential causal drivers X, and a large number of background features, we propose a novel criterion for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-07 You-Lin Chen , Lenon Minorics , Dominik Janzing

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

In aggregated variables the impact of interventions is typically ill-defined because different micro-realizations of the same macro-intervention can result in different changes of downstream macro-variables. We show that this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-23 Yuchen Zhu , Kailash Budhathoki , Jonas Kuebler , Dominik Janzing

Observational data is often readily available in large quantities, but can lead to biased causal effect estimates due to the presence of unobserved confounding. Recent works attempt to remove this bias by supplementing observational data…

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-10 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Suchi Saria

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott Mueller , Ang Li , Judea Pearl

Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Heejong Bong , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

The generalizability of empirical findings to new environments, settings or populations, often called "external validity," is essential in most scientific explorations. This paper treats a particular problem of generalizability, called…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-06 Judea Pearl , Elias Bareinboim

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

In causal inference, encouragement designs (EDs) are widely used to analyze causal effects, when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are impractical or compliance to treatment cannot be perfectly enforced. Unlike RCTs, which directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Xiangwei Chen , Zexu Sun , Fei Wu , Kun Zhang

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Marija Iloska , Petar M. Djuric

Relationship between two popular modeling frameworks of causal inference from observational data, namely, causal graphical model and potential outcome causal model is discussed. How some popular causal effect estimators found in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-03 Priyantha Wijayatunga

Recent work has made important contributions in the development of causally-interpretable meta-analysis. These methods transport treatment effects estimated in a collection of randomized trials to a target population of interest. Ideally,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-22 Felix Schur , Niklas Pfister , Peng Ding , Sach Mukherjee , Jonas Peters

Adjusting for covariates is a well established method to estimate the total causal effect of an exposure variable on an outcome of interest. Depending on the causal structure of the mechanism under study there may be different adjustment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-27 Jack Kuipers , Giusi Moffa