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Ensemble data assimilation methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are a key component of probabilistic weather forecasting. They represent the uncertainty in the initial conditions by an ensemble which incorporates information…

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a popular estimation technique in the geosciences. It is used as a numerical tool for state vector prognosis and parameter estimation. The EnKF can, for example, help to evaluate the geothermal potential…

A modification scheme to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is introduced based on the concept of the unscented transform (Julier et al., 2000; Julier and Uhlmann, 2004), which therefore will be called the ensemble unscented Kalman filter…

This paper introduces a novel state estimation framework for robots using differentiable ensemble Kalman filters (DEnKF). DEnKF is a reformulation of the traditional ensemble Kalman filter that employs stochastic neural networks to model…

Option valuation problems are often solved using standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. These techniques can often be enhanced using several strategies especially when one discretizes the dynamics of the underlying asset, of which we assume…

This paper presents an approach for simultaneous estimation of the state and unknown parameters in a sequential data assimilation framework. The state augmentation technique, in which the state vector is augmented by the model parameters,…

We address the problem of observation noise misspecification in Bayesian filtering of dynamical systems via recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference. Mis-match in tail decay between the true data generating process and an assumed…

Nonlinear stochastic differential equation models with unobservable variables are now widely used in the analysis of PK/PD data. The unobservable variables are often estimated with extended Kalman filter (EKF), and the unknown…

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) has achieved great successes in data assimilation in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, but its failure in convergence to the right filtering distribution precludes its use for uncertainty quantification. We…

Because of physical assumptions and numerical approximations, low-order models are affected by uncertainties in the state and parameters, and by model biases. Model biases, also known as model errors or systematic errors, are difficult to…

The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 [10] as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application…

In the process of reproducing the state dynamics of parameter dependent distributed systems, data from physical measurements can be incorporated into the mathematical model to reduce the parameter uncertainty and, consequently, improve the…

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for data assimilation in high-dimensional systems, but its performance often deteriorates for strongly nonlinear dynamics due to the structural mismatch between the Kalman update and the…

Data assimilation (DA) is a key component of many forecasting models in science and engineering. DA allows one to estimate better initial conditions using an imperfect dynamical model of the system and noisy/sparse observations available…

In this paper, we propose and develop a methodology for nonlinear systems health monitoring by modeling the damage and degradation mechanism dynamics as "slow" states that are augmented with the system "fast" dynamical states. This…

Multilevel Monte Carlo can efficiently compute statistical estimates of discretized random variables, for a given error tolerance. Traditionally, only a certain statistic is computed from a particular implementation of multilevel Monte…

Designing efficient learning algorithms with complexity guarantees for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large or continuous state and action spaces remains a fundamental challenge. We address this challenge for entropy-regularized MDPs…

In this paper, the ensemble consider Kalman filter is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of uncertain parameters in nonlinear dynamic and measurement models. The ensemble Kalman filter can avoid using the Jacobian matrices and reduce…

The iterative ensemble Kalman filter (IEnKF) is widely used in inverse problems to estimate system parameters from limited observations. However, the IEnKF, when applied to nonlinear systems, can be plagued by poor convergence. Here we…

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a widely used method for data assimilation in high-dimensional systems, with an ensemble update step equivalent to an empirical version of the Matheron update popular in Gaussian process regression -- a…