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In this paper, we study the statistical behaviour of the Exponentially Weighted Aggregate (EWA) in the problem of high-dimensional regression with fixed design. Under the assumption that the underlying regression vector is sparse, it is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-28 Arnak S. Dalalyan , Edwin Grappin , Quentin Paris

Gaussian graphical model is one of the powerful tools to analyze conditional independence between two variables for multivariate Gaussian-distributed observations. When the dimension of data is moderate or high, penalized likelihood methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-24 Takahiro Onizuka , Shintaro Hashimoto

Doubly intractable problems occur when both the likelihood and the posterior are available only in unnormalised form, with computationally intractable normalisation constants. Bayesian inference then typically requires direct approximation…

Bayesian models provide recursive inference naturally because they can formally reconcile new data and existing scientific information. However, popular use of Bayesian methods often avoids priors that are based on exact posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-29 Mevin B. Hooten , Devin S. Johnson , Brian M. Brost

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-17 Edward Hoyle , Lane P. Hughston , Andrea Macrina

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation inference using a rescaled smooth Gaussian field as a prior for a multidimensional function. The rescaling is achieved using a Gamma variable and the procedure can be viewed as choosing an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

We propose the Bayesian adaptive Lasso (BaLasso) for variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression. The BaLasso is adaptive to the signal level by adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients. Furthermore, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-09-14 Chenlei Leng , Minh Ngoc Tran , David Nott

Gradient boosting performs exceptionally in most prediction problems and scales well to large datasets. In this paper we prove that a ``lassoed'' gradient boosted tree algorithm with early stopping achieves faster than $n^{-1/4}$ L2…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-12 Alejandro Schuler , Yi Li , Mark van der Laan

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jinlin Lai , Charles C. Margossian , Daniel R. Sheldon

This paper studies the problem of learning the large-scale Gaussian graphical models that are multivariate totally positive of order two ($\text{MTP}_2$). By introducing the concept of bridge, which commonly exists in large-scale sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-02 Xiwen Wang , Jiaxi Ying , Daniel P. Palomar

Preferential Bayesian optimisation (PBO) deals with optimisation problems where the objective function can only be accessed via preference judgments, such as "this is better than that" between two candidate solutions (like in A/B tests or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-02 Alessio Benavoli , Dario Azzimonti , Dario Piga

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

We propose a unified, yet simple to code, non-conjugate variational Bayes algorithm for posterior approximation of generic Bayesian generalized mixed effect models. Specifically, we consider regression models identified by a linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Cristian Castiglione , Mauro Bernardi

We present a general method for deriving collapsed variational inference algo- rithms for probabilistic models in the conjugate exponential family. Our method unifies many existing approaches to collapsed variational inference. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-05 James Hensman , Magnus Rattray , Neil D. Lawrence

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Making inferences from data streams is a pervasive problem in many modern data analysis applications. But it requires to address the problem of continuous model updating and adapt to changes or drifts in the underlying data generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-11 Andres Masegosa , Thomas D. Nielsen , Helge Langseth , Dario Ramos-Lopez , Antonio Salmeron , Anders L. Madsen

We propose a new Bayesian Neural Net formulation that affords variational inference for which the evidence lower bound is analytically tractable subject to a tight approximation. We achieve this tractability by (i) decomposing ReLU…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-13 Manuel Haussmann , Fred A. Hamprecht , Melih Kandemir

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-09 Grégoire Clarté , Christian P. Robert , Robin Ryder , Julien Stoehr

Many of the data, particularly in medicine and disease mapping are count. Indeed, the under or overdispersion problem in count data distrusts the performance of the classical Poisson model. For taking into account this problem, in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-19 Mahsa Nadifar , Hossein Baghishani , Thomas Kneib , Afshin Fallah

Recently, a very attractive logistic regression inference method for exponential family Gibbs spatial point processes was introduced. We combined it with the technique of quadratic tangential variational approximation and derived a new…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tuomas Rajala