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Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are increasingly estimated using machine learning models that produce highly personalized predictions of treatment effects. In practice, however, predicted treatment effects are rarely interpreted,…

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

Categorical covariates such as race, sex, or group are ubiquitous in regression analysis. While main-only (or ANCOVA) linear models are predominant, cat-modified linear models that include categorical-continuous or categorical-categorical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 Daniel R. Kowal

It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-10 Nora Bearth , Michael Lechner

Controllable generation is one of the key requirements for successful adoption of deep generative models in real-world applications, but it still remains as a great challenge. In particular, the compositional ability to generate novel…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Weili Nie , Arash Vahdat , Anima Anandkumar

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Sreya Sarkar , Kshitij Khare , Sanvesh Srivastava

Conditional Neural Processes~(CNPs) formulate distributions over functions and generate function observations with exact conditional likelihoods. CNPs, however, have limited expressivity for high-dimensional observations, since their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Zesheng Ye , Jing Du , Lina Yao

Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) estimation methods have risen in popularity in the last years. Most of the time, individual effects are better presented as Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). Recently, representation balancing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-30 Ayoub Abraich , Agathe Guilloux , Blaise Hanczar

Noise contrastive estimation (NCE) is a popular method for training energy-based models (EBM) with intractable normalisation terms. The key idea of NCE is to learn by comparing unnormalised log-likelihoods of the reference and noisy…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Wanli Sun , Anton Ragni

We study a new approach to learning energy-based models (EBMs) based on adversarial training (AT). We show that (binary) AT learns a special kind of energy function that models the support of the data distribution, and the learning process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Xuwang Yin , Shiying Li , Gustavo K. Rohde

We develop a framework for difference-in-differences designs with staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous causal effects. We show that conventional regression-based estimators fail to provide unbiased estimates of relevant estimands…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-18 Kirill Borusyak , Xavier Jaravel , Jann Spiess

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation is the de facto gold standard for targeting a treatment to a heterogeneous population. The method estimates treatment effects up to an error $\epsilon > 0$ in each of $M$ different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Sílvia Casacuberta , Moritz Hardt

Causal representation learning aims to recover the latent causal variables and their causal relations, typically represented by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), from low-level observations such as image pixels. A prevailing line of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Ignavier Ng , Shaoan Xie , Xinshuai Dong , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , Nathan Kallus , David Sontag

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

Heterogeneous effect estimation plays a crucial role in causal inference, with applications across medicine and social science. Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) have been proposed in recent years,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Edward H. Kennedy

Several epidemiological studies have provided evidence that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases mortality risk. Furthermore, some population characteristics (e.g., age, race, and socioeconomic status) might play…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Dafne Zorzetto , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Antonio Canale , Francesca Dominici

Explainable boosting machines (EBMs) are popular "glass-box" models that learn a set of univariate functions using boosting trees. These achieve explainability through visualizations of each feature's effect. However, unlike linear model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Haimo Fang , Kevin Tan , Jonathan Pipping-Gamon , Giles Hooker

This work proposes a method for using any generator network as the foundation of an Energy-Based Model (EBM). Our formulation posits that observed images are the sum of unobserved latent variables passed through the generator network and a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Mitch Hill , Erik Nijkamp , Jonathan Mitchell , Bo Pang , Song-Chun Zhu