Related papers: Using Machine Learning to Predict Game Outcomes Ba…
As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly intelligent---in some cases, achieving superhuman performance---there is growing potential for humans to learn from and collaborate with algorithms. However, the ways in which AI systems…
Multi-turn, multi-agent LLM game evaluations often exhibit substantial run-to-run variance. In long-horizon interactions, small early deviations compound across turns and are amplified by multi-agent coupling. This biases win rate estimates…
Complex games have long been an important benchmark for testing the progress of artificial intelligence algorithms. AlphaGo, AlphaZero, and MuZero have defeated top human players in Go and Chess, garnering widespread societal attention…
Online learning and MOOCs have become increasingly popular in recent years, and the trend will continue, given the technology boom. There is a dire need to observe learners' behavior in these online courses, similar to what instructors do…
Online games are the most popular form of entertainment among youngsters as well as elders. Recognized as e-Sports, they may become an official part of the Olympic Games by 2020. However, a long waiting time for matchmaking will largely…
We introduce a novel system of matching and scoring players in tournaments, called Multi-Tier Tournaments, illustrated by chess and based on the following rules: 1. Players are divided into skill-based tiers, based on their Elo ratings. 2.…
In Natural Language Processing (NLP), the Elo rating system, originally designed for ranking players in dynamic games such as chess, is increasingly being used to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) through "A vs B" paired comparisons.…
In this paper, we explore the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) Agents in playing the strategic social deduction game, Resistance Avalon. Players in Avalon are challenged not only to make informed decisions based on dynamically…
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…
We frame the meta-learning of prediction procedures as a search for an optimal strategy in a two-player game. In this game, Nature selects a prior over distributions that generate labeled data consisting of features and an associated…
Strategy card game is a well-known genre that is demanding on the intelligent game-play and can be an ideal test-bench for AI. Previous work combines an end-to-end policy function and an optimistic smooth fictitious play, which shows…
We propose a way of extracting and aggregating per-move evaluations from sets of Go game records. The evaluations capture different aspects of the games such as played patterns or statistic of sente/gote sequences. Using machine learning…
Based on NFL game data we try to predict the outcome of a play in multiple different ways. An application of this is the following: by plugging in various play options one could determine the best play for a given situation in real time.…
Mastering the game of Go has remained a long standing challenge to the field of AI. Modern computer Go systems rely on processing millions of possible future positions to play well, but intuitively a stronger and more 'humanlike' way to…
Evaluating strategic decision-making in LLM-based agents requires generative, competitive, and longitudinal environments, yet few benchmarks provide all three, and fewer still offer evaluation signals rich enough for long-horizon,…
The paper aims to investigate the degree of cognitive skills required for success in online versions of the popular card game rummy and poker. The study focuses on analyzing the impact of experience and learnable skills on success in the…
In multi-player card games such as Skat or Bridge, the early stages of the game, such as bidding, game selection, and initial card selection, are often more critical to the success of the play than refined middle- and end-game play. At the…
Evolutionary machine learning (EML) has been applied to games in multiple ways, and for multiple different purposes. Importantly, AI research in games is not only about playing games; it is also about generating game content, modeling…
This article discusses in detail the rating system that won the kaggle competition "Chess Ratings: Elo vs the rest of the world". The competition provided a historical dataset of outcomes for chess games, and aimed to discover whether novel…
Can artificial intelligence outperform humans at strategic foresight -- the capacity to form accurate judgments about uncertain, high-stakes outcomes before they unfold? We address this question through a fully prospective prediction…