Related papers: Short-time implied volatility of additive normal t…
This study develops an integrated stochastic modeling framework for pricing short and medium-maturity equity options and assessing interest-rate risk using the Heston (1993), Bates (1996), and CIR (1985) models. We calibrate the Heston…
Our derivation of the distribution function for future returns is based on the risk neutral approach which gives a functional dependence for the European call (put) option price, C(K), given the strike price, K, and the distribution…
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the…
We develop a theoretical framework that aims to link micro-level option hedging and stock-specific factor exposure with macro-level market turbulence and explain endogenous volatility amplification during gamma-squeeze events. By explicitly…
We examine the small expiry behaviour of European call options in stock price models of exponential L\'evy type. In most cases of interest, we are able to identify the exact small expiry asymptotics. In "complete generality" we are able to…
Using Malliavin Calculus techniques, we derive closed-form expressions for the at-the-money behaviour of the forward implied volatility, its skew and its curvature, in general Markovian stochastic volatility models with continuous paths.
We show that in a large class of stochastic volatility models with additional skew-functions (local-stochastic volatility models) the tails of the cumulative distribution of the log-returns behave as exp(-c|y|), where c is a positive…
We introduce a class of stochastic volatility models $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ for which the absolute moments of the increments exhibit anomalous scaling: $\E\left(|X_{t+h} - X_t|^q \right)$ scales as $h^{q/2}$ for $q < q^*$, but as $h^{A(q)}$…
In this paper we present the asymptotic analysis of the realised quadratic variation for multivariate symmetric $\beta$-stable L\'evy processes, $\beta \in (0,2)$, and certain pure jump semimartingales. The main focus is on derivation of…
We consider the class of self-similar Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and compute the small-time (near-maturity) asymptotics for the corresponding asset price density, the call and put pricing functions, and the implied volatilities.…
Option prices encode the market's collective outlook through implied density and implied volatility. An explicit link between implied density and implied volatility translates the risk-neutrality of the former into conditions on the latter…
In this paper we prove an approximate formula expressed in terms of elementary functions for the implied volatility in the Heston model. The formula consists of the constant and first order terms in the large maturity expansion of the…
In this paper, we derive a general asymptotic implied volatility at the first-order for any stochastic volatility model using the heat kernel expansion on a Riemann manifold endowed with an Abelian connection. This formula is particularly…
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the…
This article proposes a calibration framework for complex option pricing models that jointly fits market option prices and the term structure of variance. Calibrated models under the conventional objective function, the sum of squared…
Black-Scholes implied volatility is a quantile. The insight follows from the normalized option price being a probability on the variance scale, with the inverse Gaussian distribution providing the link. It enables analytically exact and…
For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and…
In the option valuation literature, the shortcomings of one factor stochastic volatility models have traditionally been addressed by adding jumps to the stock price process. An alternate approach in the context of option pricing and…
We study here the large-time behaviour of all continuous affine stochastic volatility models (in the sense of Keller-Ressel) and deduce a closed-form formula for the large-maturity implied volatility smile. Based on refinements of the…
Random walk models with log-normal outcomes fit local market observations remarkably well. Yet interconnected or recursive structures - layered derivatives, leveraged positions, iterative funding rounds - periodically produce power-law…