Related papers: Conditional Quantile Analysis for Realized GARCH M…
We propose a risk-averse statistical learning framework wherein the performance of a learning algorithm is evaluated by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of losses rather than the expected loss. We devise algorithms based on stochastic…
This paper considers estimation and model selection of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR). Conventional quantile regression often yields undesirable crossing quantile curves, violating the monotonicity of quantiles. To address this…
Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…
This paper develops an asymptotic distribution theory for an endogenous instrumentation approach in quantile predictive regressions when both generated covariates and persistent predictors are used. The generated covariates are obtained…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
In real data analysis, the underlying model is usually unknown, modelling strategy plays a key role in the success of data analysis. Stimulated by the idea of model averaging, we propose a novel semiparametric modelling strategy for…
Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a leading tail-risk measure in finance, central to both regulatory and portfolio optimization frameworks. Classical estimation of CVaR and its gradients relies on Monte Carlo simulation, incurring…
We develop misspecification tests for building additive time-varying (ATV-)GARCH models. In the model, the volatility equation of the GARCH model is augmented by a deterministic time-varying intercept modeled as a linear combination of…
Motivated by the need for effectively summarising, modelling, and forecasting the distributional characteristics of intra-daily returns, as well as the recent work on forecasting histogram-valued time-series in the area of symbolic data…
In this paper, we introduce a new single model maneuvering target tracking approach using stochastic differential equation (SDE) based on GARCH volatility. The traditional input estimation (IE) techniques assume constant acceleration level…
We propose nonparametric estimators for conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) associated with conditional distributions of a series of returns on a financial asset. The return series and the conditioning…
Two-stage stochastic programming is a popular framework for optimization under uncertainty, where decision variables are split between first-stage decisions, and second-stage (or recourse) decisions, with the latter being adjusted after…
Estimating the conditional quantile of the interested variable with respect to changes in the covariates is frequent in many economical applications as it can offer a comprehensive insight. In this paper, we propose a novel semiparametric…
In the present paper we consider the varying coefficient model which represents a useful tool for exploring dynamic patterns in many applications. Existing methods typically provide asymptotic evaluation of precision of estimation…
The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a useful risk measure in fields such as machine learning, finance, insurance, energy, etc. When measuring very extreme risk, the commonly used CVaR estimation method of sample averaging does not work…
Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…
We introduce a heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model for geostatistical data or processes on networks, e.g., for modelling and predicting financial return volatility across firms in a latent spatial framework. The model combines…
Risk measures are important key figures to measure the adequacy of the reserves of a company. The most common risk measures in practice are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recently, quantum-based algorithms are…
Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…