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We study nonlinear serial dependence tests for non-Gaussian time series and residuals of dynamic models based on portmanteau statistics involving nonlinear autocovariances. A new test with an asymptotic $\chi^2$ distribution is introduced…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Joann Jasiak , Aryan Manafi Neyazi

We propose consistent nonparametric tests of conditional independence for time series data. Our methods are motivated from the difference between joint conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the product of conditional CDFs.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-12 Xiaojun Song , Haoyu Wei

This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-30 Anna Kiriliouk , Chen Zhou

Motivated by applications in biological science, we propose a novel test to assess the conditional mean dependence of a response variable on a large number of covariates. Our procedure is built on the martingale difference divergence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-31 Xianyang Zhang , Shun Yao , Xiaofeng Shao

A new portmanteau test statistic is proposed for detecting nonlinearity in time series data. In this paper, we elaborate on the Toeplitz autocorrelation matrix to the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of residuals and squared residuals…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-01 Esam Mahdi , Thomas J. Fisher

The Portmanteau test provides the vanilla method for detecting serial correlations in classical univariate time series analysis. The method is extended to the case of observations from a locally stationary functional time series. Asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-17 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

An overview of existing nonparametric tests of extreme-value dependence is presented. Given an i.i.d.\ sample of random vectors from a continuous distribution, such tests aim at assessing whether the underlying unknown copula is of the {\em…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-27 Axel Bücher , Ivan Kojadinovic

This article proposes omnibus portmanteau tests for contrasting adequacy of time series models. The test statistics are based on combining the autocorrelation function of the conditional residuals, the autocorrelation function of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-02 Esam Mahdi

Using cumulative residual processes, we propose joint goodness-of-fit tests for conditional means and variances functions in the context of nonlinear time series with martingale difference innovations. The main challenge comes from the fact…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-02 Kilani Ghoudi , Naâmane Laïb , Mohamed Chaouch

We propose generalized portmanteau-type test statistics in the frequency domain to test independence between two stationary time series. The test statistics are formed analogous to the one in Chen and Deo (2004, Econometric Theory 20,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-14 Xiaofeng Shao

We study goodness-of-fit testing for non-causal autoregressive time series with non-Gaussian stable noise. To model time series exhibiting sharp spikes or occasional bursts of outlying observations, the exponent of the non-Gaussian stable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-19 Yunwei Cui , Rongning Wu , Thomas J. Fisher

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Lorenzo Dell'Oro , Carlo Gaetan

We study the consistency and weak convergence of the conditional tail function and conditional Hill estimators under broad dependence assumptions for a heavy-tailed response sequence and a covariate sequence. Consistency is established…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Martin Bladt , Laurits Glargaard , Theodor Henningsen

We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response $Y$ and a predictor $X$ given a random vector $Z$. The proposed test is based on e-statistics and test martingales, which generalize likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Peter Grünwald , Alexander Henzi , Tyron Lardy

We treat the problem of testing independence between m continuous variables when m can be larger than the available sample size n. We consider three types of test statistics that are constructed as sums or sums of squares of pairwise rank…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-05 Dennis Leung , Mathias Drton

This article proposes a novel test for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the martingale difference divergence function, a recently developed dependence measure suitable for measuring the degree of conditional mean dependence of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-10 Luca Mattia Rolla

We investigate the relative information content of six measures of dependence between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ for large or extreme events for several models of interest for financial time series. The six measures of dependence are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

Critical parts of the definitions of standard serial and standard parallel modes refer to stochastic independence. Standard serial models are defined by stochastic independence and identical distributions of their processing times.…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-13 Ru Zhang , Yanjun Liu , James T Townsend

Gaussian scale mixtures are constructed as Gaussian processes with a random variance. They have non-Gaussian marginals and can exhibit asymptotic dependence unlike Gaussian processes, which are asymptotically independent except in the case…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-31 Raphael Huser , Thomas Opitz , Emeric Thibaud

Measuring conditional dependence is an important topic in statistics with broad applications including graphical models. Under a factor model setting, a new conditional dependence measure based on projection is proposed. The corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-14 Jianqing Fan , Yang Feng , Lucy Xia