Related papers: On the Parameter Estimation in the Schwartz-Smiths…
Finding Bertram's optimal trading strategy for a pair of cointegrated assets following the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck price difference process can be formulated as an unconstrained convex optimization problem for maximization of expected profit…
Parametric nonlinear mixed effects models (NLMEs) are now widely used in biometrical studies, especially in pharmacokinetics research and HIV dynamics models, due to, among other aspects, the computational advances achieved during the last…
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the…
This paper proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for break points in high-dimensional factor models, specifically accounting for multiple structural breaks. We begin by establishing a necessary and sufficient condition to…
The use of Bayesian filtering has been widely used in mathematical finance, primarily in Stochastic Volatility models. They help in estimating unobserved latent variables from observed market data. This field saw huge developments in recent…
The Linear Multistep Method Particle Filter (LMM PF) is a method for predicting the evolution in time of a evolutionary system governed by a system of differential equations. If some of the parameters of the governing equations are…
Nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter (KF), such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), are indispensable for state estimation in complex dynamical systems, yet the conditions for a nonlinear KF to…
This paper develops a class of potential outcomes models characterized by three main features: (i) Unobserved heterogeneity can be represented by a vector of potential outcomes and a type describing the manner in which an instrument…
This report addresses the maximum likelihood identification of models for offset-free model predictive control, where linear time-invariant models are augmented with (fictitious) uncontrollable integrating modes, called integrating…
We consider the problem of estimating the means $\mu_i$ of $n$ random variables $Y_i \sim N(\mu_i,1)$, $i=1,\ldots ,n$. Assuming some structure on the $\mu$ process, e.g., a state space model, one may use a summary statistics for the…
Autonomous mobile robot competitions judge based on a robot's ability to quickly and accurately navigate the game field. This means accurate localization is crucial for creating an autonomous competition robot. Two common localization…
Stochastic parameterizations are increasingly being used to represent the uncertainty associated with model errors in ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. One of the challenges associated with the use of these parameterizations is…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
The use of Kalman filtering, as well as its nonlinear extensions, for the estimation of system variables and parameters has played a pivotal role in many fields of scientific inquiry where observations of the system are restricted to a…
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and…
This paper considers the problem of robustly estimating the parameters of a heavy-tailed multivariate distribution when the covariance matrix is known to have the structure of a low-rank matrix plus a diagonal matrix as considered in factor…
We present a new probabilistic model to address semi-nonnegative matrix factorization (SNMF), called Skellam-SNMF. It is a hierarchical generative model consisting of prior components, Skellam-distributed hidden variables and observed data.…
This paper considers the Linear Minimum Variance recursive state estimation for the linear discrete time dynamic system with random state transition and measurement matrices, i.e., random parameter matrices Kalman filtering. It is shown…
The Kalman filter combines forecasts and new observations to obtain an estimation which is optimal in the sense of a minimum average quadratic error. The Kalman filter has two main restrictions: (i) the dynamical system is assumed linear…
Kalman filtering and smoothing are the foundational mechanisms for efficient inference in Gauss-Markov models. However, their time and memory complexities scale prohibitively with the size of the state space. This is particularly…