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A novel and comprehensive methodology designed to tackle the challenges posed by extreme values in the context of random censorship is introduced. The main focus is on the analysis of integrals based on the product-limit estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Martin Bladt , Igor Rodionov

Generating accurate extremes from an observational data set is crucial when seeking to estimate risks associated with the occurrence of future extremes which could be larger than those already observed. Applications range from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Nicolas Lafon , Philippe Naveau , Ronan Fablet

Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-17 Anna Kiriliouk

Understanding treatment effects in extreme regimes is important for characterizing risks associated with different interventions. This is hindered by the unavailability of counterfactual outcomes and the rarity and difficulty of collecting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Ahmed Aloui , Ali Hasan , Yuting Ng , Miroslav Pajic , Vahid Tarokh

We discuss in this paper a possibility of constructing a whole class of asymptotic distribution-free tests for testing regularly varying tail distributions. The idea is that we treat the tails of distributions as members of a parametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-07 Thuong Nguyen

Identifying directions where extreme events occur is a major challenge in multivariate extreme value analysis. In this paper, we use the concept of sparse regular variation introduced by Meyer and Wintenberger (2021)} to infer the tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Nicolas Meyer , Olivier Wintenberger

The goal of this paper is to investigate the tools of extreme value theory originally introduced for discrete time stationary stochastic processes (time series), namely the tail process and the tail measure, in the framework of continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Philippe Soulier

A wide range of natural and social phenomena result in observables whose distributions can be well approximated by a power-law decay. The well-known Hill estimator of the tail exponent provides results which are in many respects superior to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-05-20 Éva Rácz , János Kertész , Zoltán Eisler

Understanding multivariate dependencies in both the bulk and the tails of a distribution is an important problem for many applications, such as ensuring algorithms are robust to observations that are infrequent but have devastating effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-21 Yuting Ng , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-26 Carlotta Pacifici , Simone A. Padoan , Jaroslav Mysiak

The block maxima method is one of the most popular approaches for extreme value analysis with independent and identically distributed observations in the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. The lack of a rigorous study on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Simone A Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

The dominant approaches to text representation in natural language rely on learning embeddings on massive corpora which have convenient properties such as compositionality and distance preservation. In this paper, we develop a novel method…

Both parametric distribution functions appearing in extreme value theory - the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution - have log-concave densities if the extreme value index gamma is in [-1,0].…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-17 Samuel Müller , Kaspar Rufibach

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-23 João Nicolau , Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

Distributed storage systems often employ erasure codes to achieve high data reliability while attaining space efficiency. Such storage systems are known to be susceptible to long tails in response time. It has been shown that in modern…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Vaneet Aggarwal , Tian Lan

We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-15 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Michael Kallitsis , Stilian Stoev

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-30 Karthik Somayaji NS , Yu Wang , Malachi Schram , Jan Drgona , Mahantesh Halappanavar , Frank Liu , Peng Li

In this paper, according to a certain criterion, we divide the exponential distribution class into three subclasses. One of them is closely related to the regular-variation-tailed distribution class, so it is called the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-30 Zhaolei Cui , Edward Omey , Wenyuan Wang , Yuebao Wang

Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-22 Anand Deo

We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Jose Blanchet , Fei He , Karthyek R. A. Murthy