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This paper quantifies the international spillovers of US monetary policy by exploiting the high-frequency movement of multiple financial assets around FOMC announcements. I use the identification strategy introduced by Jarocinski & Karadi…

General Economics · Economics 2023-02-08 Santiago Camara

This paper examines the impact of US monetary policy tightening on emerging markets, distinguishing between direct and indirect spillover effects using the global vector autoregression with stochastic volatility covering 32 countries. The…

General Economics · Economics 2024-02-13 Povilas Lastauskas , Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen

This paper shows that disregarding the information effects around the European Central Bank monetary policy decision announcements biases its international spillovers. Using data from 23 economies, both Emerging and Advanced, I show that…

General Economics · Economics 2023-06-08 Santiago Camara

We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector autoregression, we use macroeconomic and financial variables…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-06 Michael Pfarrhofer , Anna Stelzer

This paper studies the transmission of US monetary policy shocks into Emerging Markets emphasizing the role of investment and financial heterogeneity. First, we use a panel SVAR model to show that a US interest tightening leads to a…

General Economics · Economics 2022-09-23 Santiago Camara , Sebastian Ramirez Venegas

This paper examines the sign-dependent international spillovers of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank monetary policy shocks. Using a consistent high-frequency identification of pure monetary policy shocks across 44 advanced and…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-11 Santiago Camara

This paper studies the spillovers of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate shocks into the Canadian economy and compares them with those of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). We combine a VAR model and local projection regressions with…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-18 Santiago Camara , Jeanne Aublin

This paper analyzes nonlinearities in the international transmission of financial shocks originating in the US. To do so, we develop a flexible nonlinear multi-country model. Our framework is capable of producing asymmetries in the…

This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined…

General Economics · Economics 2025-08-12 Austin Kennedy

This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy surprises on U.S. Treasury bond yields and the implications for portfolio managers. Based on the supply and demand model, traditional economic theories suggest that Federal Reserve bond…

General Economics · Economics 2025-05-13 Minnie Zhu , Yuhan Liu , Simon Gong

Communication is now a standard tool in the central bank's monetary policy toolkit. Theoretically, communication provides the central bank an opportunity to guide public expectations, and it has been shown empirically that central bank…

General Economics · Economics 2018-09-26 Ancil Crayton

Monthly disaggregated US data from 1978 to 2016 reveals that exposure to news on inflation and monetary policy helps to explain inflation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, perceptions…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-25 Ben Zhe Wang , Jeffrey Sheen , Stefan Trück , Shih-Kang Chao , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

We study the effects of financial shocks on the United States economy by using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that exploits the non-normalities in the data. We use this method to uniquely identify the model and…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-08 Olli Palmén

Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-29 Maximilian Schröder

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-10-05 Alexander M. Petersen , Fengzhong Wang , Shlomo Havlin , H. Eugene Stanley

This paper investigates how the cost of public debt shapes fiscal policy and its effect on the economy. Using U.S. historical data, I show that when servicing the debt creates a fiscal burden, the government responds to spending shocks by…

General Economics · Economics 2023-09-15 Venance Riblier

This paper introduces a transparent framework to identify the informational content of FOMC announcements. We do so by modelling the expectations of the FOMC and private sector agents using state of the art computational linguistic tools on…

General Economics · Economics 2021-11-12 Yong Cai , Santiago Camara , Nicholas Capel

This paper offers a synthesis of the empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy. Using the findings from an extensive collection of meta-analyses, it evaluates the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-25 Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez Salguero

The effectiveness of central bank communication is a crucial aspect of monetary policy transmission. While recent research has examined the influence of policy communication by the chairs of the Federal Reserve on various financial…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Yayue Deng , Mohan Xu , Yao Tang

In the United States, firearm-related deaths and injuries are a major public health issue. Because of limited federal action, state policies are particularly important, and their evaluation informs the actions of other policymakers. The…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-17 Lee Kennedy-Shaffer , Alan Hamilton Kennedy
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